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Today’s Summary
Monday, July 25th, 2022
Indices: Russell 2000 +0.60% | Dow +0.28% | S&P 500 +0.13% | Nasdaq 100 -0.55%
Sectors: 8 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led by a wide margin, gaining +3.67%. Consumer Discretionary lagged, falling -0.86%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +2.11% to $96.70 per barrel. Gold futures inched lower by just -0.08% to $1,719 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index inched lower by -0.06%.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -3.32% to $21,862. Ethereum dropped -6.48% to $1,498.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 2.800%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
#ES_F, 4h
The yellow line is a critical one. If ES drops below it during the next several sessions, we'll have another Bull Trap. pic.twitter.com/joUWXw0k2W
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) July 25, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso). It’s a 4-hour candlestick chart of S&P 500 futures over the past three months. The yellow line represents the June 27th/28th highs around 3950. Yuriy points out that if the S&P 500 breaks this level, it will constitute a failed breakout. As we know, failed breakouts are often followed by sharp moves in the opposite direction, which in this case is lower. Between earnings and the Fed, everyone is expecting a big week ahead. The bulls will be trapped if the S&P 500 fails to hold 3950 in the coming days.
Quote of the Day
“At the bottom, stocks will be cheap and no one will care.”
– Bob Farrell
Top Links
Put These Charts on Your Wall: 2022 Edition – Compound
Charlie Bilello highlights some of the craziest charts of 2022.
There Will Be Rallies – PFT Trading
Greg Rieben looks at bear market rallies.
Staring Contest – The Weekly Trend
In this podcast, Ian McMillan, Dan Gorghuber, and Kevin Firari discuss some of the most important technical developments across the markets.
Risk Appetite Making a Comeback – Means to a Trend
Austin Harrison takes a look at some improving risk ratios.
Trendlines Over Headlines with Special Guest, John Roque – The Chart Report
In case you missed it, catch up on the latest episode of Trend Over Headlines where our guest, John Roque outlines the bear case for stocks.
Top Tweets
SPX ex-energy wasn't so great today.
Sort of like Q2 earnings season. pic.twitter.com/2tljaKnEgl— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) July 25, 2022
We barely cracked 9 billion shares
quietest day of 2022 pic.twitter.com/Kqjq3cxhWs
— Tom Hearden (@followtheh) July 25, 2022
Bear markets (and near bears) that take place without a recession avg 23.8% and last more than seven months.
The current bear was 23.6% and more than five months long.
Pretty normal as crazy as that sounds and feels. pic.twitter.com/6X8H11j2ng
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) July 25, 2022
Look at all the failed rally attempts with a declining 200 DMA in the $DJIA $DIA in 1929-32 pic.twitter.com/py1WbgYctk
— Brian Shannon, CMT (@alphatrends) July 25, 2022
Off the lows =/= new up trend.
The bull case needs to prove itself, but it's been 35 weeks (and counting) of not being able to. pic.twitter.com/CPSNSwtt0k
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) July 25, 2022
/ES is retesting an important horizontal line which appears to be the brim of a sizeable Cup & Handle, but there has been a prolonged battle over it. If if fails… failed moves often lead to fast moves. pic.twitter.com/Hq21oiKHlv
— northwestdr (@northwestdr) July 25, 2022
Despite, $SPY's break above its March downtrend, $IEI: $HYG held its uptrend, illustrating continuation of low risk appetite, not bullish for the $SPY pic.twitter.com/b54ZbPbElX
— Stacey.A.Lee (@BBaxter2020) July 25, 2022
The spread between the 10-year and 3-month, which has inverted prior to the last 8 recessions in the US, is now 28 basis points away from inversion.
The spread between the 10-year and 2-year first inverted back in April and remains inverted today.
Charting via @ycharts pic.twitter.com/LidcDZkonh
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) July 24, 2022
Most areas of #commodities are under pressure..
BUT… $DBE's uptrend is still intact!
On the flip side.. $DBP has down nothing but go down for 2+ years.. #gold sucks!$DBB fell off a cliff and is looking for support… and $DBA is looking similar..
Where are the cmdy bulls? pic.twitter.com/dIyR1HC8dx
— Grant Hawkridge (@granthawkridge) July 25, 2022
Copper has experienced a 4-sigma decline, matching or exceeding prior pullbacks. pic.twitter.com/4uGeL2ZK7B
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) July 25, 2022
What are the odds the two-year holds the 2018 high?
3-year, 5-year, 7-year, 10-year, etc. falling like dominoes… Two-year is next in line pic.twitter.com/7alqURojUg
— Mike Singleton, CFA (@InvictusMacro) July 25, 2022
Negative pre-announcement from #Walmart $WMT puts downward pressure after hours on $AMZN $TGT $DLTR $DG $KSS and many other retailers.
(not a recommendation) pic.twitter.com/0XT3qQm2qW
— Pat Mullaly, CMT (@PMullaly_TDA) July 25, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!