In 2025, we’re in historic territory for bearish sentiment.
We’ve now seen 14 consecutive weeks where AAII Bears have outnumbered AAII Bulls.
And it gets even more extreme with the AAII Bears, which have stayed above 50% for 11 straight weeks.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The red line in the top panel shows the number of consecutive weeks where AAII Bears > AAII Bulls.
The red line in the bottom panel tracks the number of consecutive weeks where AAII Bears have remained above 50%.
The Takeaway: This is a prolonged period of pessimism that deserves attention. We have seen 14 consecutive weeks during which the AAII Bears have outnumbered the AAII Bulls, marking the 5th longest stretch of bearish sentiment on record.
The extreme data does not stop there; we have also seen that for the past 11 straight weeks, the percentage of AAII Bears has exceeded 50%. This level of bearish sentiment has never persisted for this length of time before.
Gold has been in an uptrend for the past 358 trading days, marking the 8th-longest trend since the 1970s.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line in the upper panel indicates the price of gold. The blue line represents the 50-day moving average, while the red line shows the 200-day moving average of gold.
The black bars in the bottom panel indicate days when the 50-day average is greater than the 200-day average.
The Takeaway: To clarify, I identify a strong uptrend when the 50-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average. Currently, gold is experiencing one of the longest uptrends in the past 60 years, ranking as the eighth longest overall so far. At this point, there are no signs of this trend slowing down, as it continues to move upward and to the right on the chart. Therefore, it's difficult to be pessimistic about gold at this time.
However, Right now the 50-day moving average is 12.4% above the 200-day moving average. The last time the trend...
After 5 months of consolidating, the S&P 500 Advance-Decline line has closed at an all-time high.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line represents the S&P 500’s Advance-Decline line.
The Takeaway: The Advance-Decline Line is one of the purest ways to analyze market breadth to assess overall market strength.
It measures the number of stocks participating or not.
The concept is super simple.
We add the number of stocks moving higher and subtract the number of stocks that are declining. Then, we add that sum to the previous day's Advance-Decline Line value.
When the Advance-Decline Line rises, it indicates broad market participation. Conversely, when it falls, this suggests that more stocks are declining than advancing, which is a sign of market weakness.
Currently, the S&P 500 Advance-Decline Line is at its highest level ever, which indicates that market internals are strong.
This type of strength supports the potential for a sustainable...
