My Core Market Model has climbed to 3 — its highest reading since November 2024.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The candlesticks in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
The black line in the bottom panel shows the Core Market Model — a composite of breadth, liquidity, and sentiment.
The Takeaway: At 3, the Core Market Model is sending a clear message: internals are strong and strengthening.
When these inputs align, trend conditions tend to improve — and that’s what we’re seeing now.
Two weeks ago, the model flipped positive. Since then, it’s gained momentum — moving firmly into what I call the Constructive zone.
That’s where markets tend to behave better: pullbacks get shallower, trends persist, and volatility fades.
This isn’t guesswork. Over two decades of data, the Constructive zone has delivered the most reliable forward returns — with tighter drawdowns and less noise.
We’re not stretched. We’re supported. That’s what matters.
This isn’t about guaranteed upside — it’s about better conditions to take risk.
It’s not about calling the next move — it’s about trading in the right environment.
The Core Market Model isn’t a signal. It’s a lens.
And right now, it’s saying: the wind’s at our back.
Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts
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