Chart of the Day - Friday, January 16, 2026

🏆 Today's Chart of the Day was shared by Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap).
 

• The S&P 500 ($SPX) remains largely aligned with the 4-year election cycle as we begin the midterm year, historically the most challenging stretch of the cycle.
   
• Volatility tends to rise during the Q2 to Q3 window, with midterm years seeing an average intra-year drawdown of roughly -18%.
   
• While cycles are not signals on their own, they provide valuable context, particularly when market behavior begins to diverge from historical norms.

The Takeaway: The S&P 500 is entering the most volatile phase of the 4-year election cycle, and its ability to remain resilient during this period would be notably bullish.