Is the Dollar Repeating Trump 1.0? 🌤️ The Morning Print
Good morning!
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is, so far, tracking closely with its performance during Trump’s first term.
Let's take a closer look.
Just last week, Jeff Hirsch was featured as Chart of the Day for his work highlighting the market’s average path during Trump presidency years.
Now, we have a similar framework to evaluate how the dollar may behave under a comparable backdrop.
These analogs aren’t meant to be followed blindly, but they provide useful context for how trends unfolded the first time around.
To this point, the pattern is lining up.
Year one saw dollar weakness, which we experienced last year.
Now, in year two, DXY appears to be carving out a bottom and mirroring the prior cycle.
If this analog continues to hold, it suggests a setup for a rally into year-end, with strength extending throughout next year.
The roadmap is there, now it’s a matter of whether price continues to respect it.
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