The Sunday Stalk List | Ep. 10

A lot of Potential

August 3, 2025

Sunday Stalk List | Ep 10

Welcome back to The Sunday Stalk List.

Every weekend, I review hundreds if not thousands of charts across U.S. indices, global markets, breadth, sentiment, and intermarket relationships.

And now I’m opening up my stalk list.

The names that stood out the most from my review.

This week’s theme: A Lot of Potential.

My work centers around market regimes and letting that dictate how aggressive I get.

After a week where the market took a punch, I’m not usually one to step in and start swinging.

But I am seeing a ton of potential.

That’s the keyword .... POTENTIAL.

These aren’t buys yet, but if we get some follow-through, the setups could offer clean risk/reward.

I don’t buy dips. I buy strength after dips, with well risk defined.

This week I’m focused on “proxies” — proxies for growth, breadth, speculation. Because if the proxies flip, the trades inside them are likely shaping up too.

Let’s get into it.

$EQAL – Russell 1000 Equal Weight

This is one of my favorite lenses for the “market of stocks.” It covers nearly all of U.S. equity capitalization and strips out the top-heavy distortion.

We just saw a failed breakout. But now it’s pulling back into a potential support zone around that 200-day and ATH AVWAP cluster.

Levels to Watch:

Hammer candles are nice, but they don’t guarantee support. If we get follow-through, the 200-day and anchored VWAP from the ATH give a clean zone to manage short-term risk.

$RSP – S&P 500 Equal Weight

This is how I gauge the health of the average stock in the S&P 500.

On Tuesday, it gave me a heads-up to be cautious. Bearish RSI divergence was the early warning, price breakdown was the confirmation.

I added some volatility protection into that weakness.

Levels to Watch:

$180 is the key short-term level. Strength from there offers a nibble with clear risk. Below that, $175 becomes the next spot to watch.

No need to guess, i'll just let price confirm.

$ARKK – ARK Innovation ETF

This is my proxy for speculative tech. The high beta, risk-on playground. When these names are working, it’s usually a green light to press.

Levels to Watch:

Price is back near that key $70 zone. Strength from here presents a tight entry. But if it breaks $70? I could see a move back toward $55 where the IPO and ATH AVWAPs converge. That’s 10%+ of potential air.

$IWM – Russell 2000

I don’t trade this chart directly, but I watch it closely. People don’t buy small caps when they’re fearful.

Levels to Watch:

This $210 area is the key. It has a ton of price memory and now lines up with the 200-day. Holding that would support the idea that this is a pause in risk appetite, not a full regime shift.

Bonus Charts That Caught My Eye

$VIX - Volatility Index

The VIX just had its biggest up day since the April tariff tantrum. But here’s the thing, volatility tends to mean revert. It doesn’t usually stay above 20 for long unless something’s breaking.

Levels to Watch:

If we can get back under 20 quickly, that likely means buyers stepped into the weakness above and most of the pullback is already in the rearview.

$ITB / $XHB – The Homies

Homebuilders continue to look constructive. This sector carries major macro weight related to rates, inflation, and consumer demand.

Levels to Watch:

I'm already long this space so I’m just watching for higher highs, higher lows, and RSI staying above 50. That’s the signature of a healthy uptrend forming.