There’s no drama about what the Fed is expected to do this week—rates are staying put. Markets are pricing it in, 105 out of 105 economists in the Reuters survey agree, and Powell hasn’t given us any reason to expect otherwise. The drama is...
Everyone keeps assuming the Fed is done. That rates peaked in 2023. That the next move is down. That the cycle has run its course and we’re heading back to easy money.
Everything in markets is connected. Not in theory—in function.
Think of the market like a human body. Your brain is at the center—processing data, storing memories, sending signals. But none of that matters unless the message...
Why? Because tariffs create immediate uncertainty. They slow growth, tighten financial conditions, and drive a flight to safety — all of which are bond bullish in the short term. We’ve seen this playbook before: geopolitical tension or trade...
Crude oil is setting up for a big move, and almost nobody is paying attention. In fact, sentiment in the energy trade couldn’t be more bearish right now. Everyone hates it, everyone.