Monday, March 25th, 2019
Indices: US stocks were flat today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average eking out a small gain of 15 points or 0.06%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both finished down but by only 0.08% and 0.07% respectively. The Russell outperformed today, closing up 0.46%.
Sectors: The Consumer Staples sector was the leader, with a gain of 0.59%, while the Technology sector lagged, falling 0.44%.
Commodities: WTI Crude Oil futures fell 0.4% to settle at $58.82 per barrel. Gold futures hit a 3 week high, gaining 0.78% to settle at $1,323 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index was relatively unchanged today.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield continued to fall to where it currently sits at 2.405%.
Here are some of the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Today’s chart of the day was shared on Twitter by Teddy Vallee (@TeddyVallee). It’s a chart of the Financial sector’s performance relative to the overall market (S&P 500). The green line represents the US 10-year Treasury yield. You can see that both Financials and the 10-year yield are hitting new 52-week lows together. We like this chart because it emphasizes the effect lower interest rates have on the Financial sector. If yields continue to fall, it will likely force Financials lower, which in turn, would weigh down the overall market. Therefore, the US 10-year note is something to keep a close eye on right now.
Quote of The Day
“A bull market tends to bail you out of your mistakes. Conversely, bear markets make you PAY for your mistakes”
– Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters)
Price Momentum Oscillator Points to a Pullback – The Chart Report
In this report, where we feature Erin Swenlin of Stockcharts.com. She argues the market may be due for a pullback here and uses momentum indicators as evidence to support her thesis.
The False Breakout – Josh Brown
Here’s a short blog post from Josh Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management. He shares a chart from technician, Jon Krinsky that shows the potential false breakout that’s developing in the S&P 500 right now.
The Market’s Historical Reaction to Yield Curve Inversions – Andrew Thrasher
There’s been an obnoxious amount of chatter regarding the yield curve, as the short end of the curve inverted on Friday. Andrew Thrasher helps simplify the debate by showing how the market has reacted to this signal in the past.
Last Three or Four Days March Shaky Ground – Jeff Hirsch
Here’s a quick read from seasonality expert Jeff Hirsch. He points out that historically, the last few days of March have been weak for stocks. He thinks this is likely a result of end-of-quarter portfolio restructuring.
Momentum Monday…Let’s See How The Chaser React – Howard Lindzon
Howard Lindzon is back with some of his favorite momentum stocks in his weekly “Momentum Monday” video segment. Ivanhoff joins him to help breakdown the charts and trends they like.
Top 10 Tweets
Back in December $SPX tested the 200 DMA from below right in front of a "death cross" before cratering into the end of the year. Let's see if we get the same dynamic in reverse in front of a "golden cross." pic.twitter.com/d5uA6bmTrU
— Dan Russo, CMT (@DanRusso_CMT) March 25, 2019
It's been 3 months since the stock market's bottom on Christmas Eve 2018
The S&P's 3 month rate-of-change has gone from -19% to +19%
— Troy Bombardia (@bullmarketsco) March 25, 2019
Since 1896, Q1 of Year 3 of the four-year Presidential cycle (so this quarter) shows that this quarter is the best for stocks.
Dow up 9% for the quarter with a few days to go.
Of course, Q4 of last year was historically pretty strong also…. pic.twitter.com/oK5MxjXnl2
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 25, 2019
— Willie Delwiche (@WillieDelwiche) March 25, 2019
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) March 25, 2019
Small caps underperformed during most of the 1990s, outperformed during most of 2000s and have equal-performed the past 9 years. What $RUT does is not a useful tell for $SPX pic.twitter.com/23AiLMcpLY
— Urban Carmel (@ukarlewitz) March 25, 2019
The 4-day drop in the largest gov't bond (US, UK, German, Japanese) yields has been the biggest collective slide since Sep 26, 2016: pic.twitter.com/eCBKr4cLkC
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) March 25, 2019
#Platinum $XPT on support @ '08, early '16, & Aug '18 & trying to turn. #Palladium $XPD o/b across the board, weekly MACD @ its highest level EVER, & monthly MACD is at its '01 momentum extreme. Rel. ratio here back @ '01 low which coincided w/ Palladium monthly mo extreme. pic.twitter.com/8OmsNvPAIC
— da Chart Life (@daChartLife) March 25, 2019
The last time the 10-year-Minus-1-Month Yield Curve was exactly where it is right now was exactly 13 years ago (March 22, 2006).
And how long did it take for $SPX to tank?
About 2 and a half years. pic.twitter.com/TL7KRzDc4P
— OddStats (@OddStats) March 24, 2019
— David Zarling (@360research) March 25, 2019