Chart of the Day - Monday, September 15, 2025
September 15, 2025
- September has historically been the weakest month of the year, yet the S&P 500 is up +2.4% at the halfway mark, and the Nasdaq has risen every day since gapping lower on the first session.
- Rob reminds us that the bulk of September's weakness has occurred in the back half of the month. According to Bespoke, this week has been one of the worst of the year, with a median loss of -1.15% and a 40% win rate over the past decade.
- On an optimistic note, if the index can hold its gains through month-end, it will bode well for the rest of the year, as Q4 tends to be stronger when September closes higher.
The Takeaway: History suggests the second half of September could be more challenging than the first half. However, if the S&P 500 holds its gains through month-end, it will set the stage for a Q4 rally.