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Patrick Dunuwila

Chart of the Day - Monday, August 11, 2025

August 11, 2025


🏆 Today's Chart of the Day comes from Ned Davis Research, shared by @AndrewThrasher.
 

  • The S&P 500 ($SPX) has alternated between positive and negative closes every day so far in August, yet it remains up +2% month-to-date.
 
  • Following a strong rally from April to August, history suggests that strength often fades in the back half of the month during post-election years.
 
  • This year’s trend (orange) has closely mirrored the average post-election year since 1928 (blue). Historically, the index peaks in mid-August before rebounding around Thanksgiving. However, if $SPX ignores this seasonal headwind, it would suggest a healthy underlying bid in the market.
     
The Takeaway: This year’s price action in the S&P 500 has tracked the average post-election year reasonably well. The rally from April to August arrived right on cue, but the next three months could prove to be much more challenging than the last.
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