Chart of the Day - Thursday, June 12, 2025

🏆  Today's Chart of the Day was shared by @SubuTrade.
 

• The S&P 500 is less than 2% shy of an all-time high after rebounding more than +21% from its closing lows over the past two months.
   
• Sentiment is starting to normalize, with the latest AAII Sentiment Survey showing bulls outnumbering bears by +3.1%—its highest reading in 15 weeks.
   
• SubuTrade notes that when the AAII bull-bear spread has exceeded 3% for the first time in at least 15 weeks, the S&P 500 has historically performed well. While the sample size is limited, the index has never been lower 3 to 12 months later, averaging a +22% gain over the following year.
   

The Takeaway: Sentiment is finally normalizing after a prolonged stretch of pessimism. The S&P 500 has historically delivered strong returns following similar shifts in market sentiment.