This interest rate forecast chart from BBG/WSJ is one of my favorites from 2019.
LESSON: Don't get married to forecasts – follow price! $STUDY pic.twitter.com/h5ZeY1gQ2w
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) December 19, 2019
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Matt Weller of FOREX.com (@MWellerFX). With the new year around the corner, analysts have been offering up their 2020 forecasts left and right. Matt’s chart illustrates why it’s essential to take these year-end price targets and forecasts with a grain of salt. The chart shows analyst predictions for the US 10-year Treasury yield, as you can see, nobody predicted yields would fall the way they did. We believe year-end price targets and forecasts are kind of silly. Sure, these predictions can be necessary to make long-term decisions, but let’s be honest, nobody has a crystal ball. Anyone who confidently tells you they know where the S&P 500 will end in 2020 is full of $h!t. Instead of trying to predict, we think it’s better to keep an open mind, focus on the trend, and asses new information as it becomes available throughout the year. As Matt says, “follow price!”