Keeping a close eye on TLT as bonds run into potential resistance just as a favorable seasonal window winds down. FWIW, almost everyone I follow is in the “Fed will pivot, rates will decline” camp, or so it seems.#sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/iHMdWeGvd6
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) December 7, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel). It’s a daily candlestick chart of the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, $TLT, year-to-date. $TLT is on track for its worst year since inception, down more than -26% YTD and -36% from its 2020 peak. However, it’s bounced +18% off its lows in less than two months, marking the largest rally since its peak. Jay points out that it’s testing its 150-day exponential moving average, while its seasonal trend flips from bullish to bearish. Sentiment also seems optimistic, with the Reddit crowd recently turning to Bonds for excitement. Will the recent momentum persist, or will Bonds find resistance?