What carries more weight for this past session's $SPX performance: a second consecutive strong bullish gap on open (global risk on) or reversal to close lower on the day (local risk off)? pic.twitter.com/jETCVa0MqB
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) April 7, 2020
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter). It’s a daily candlestick chart of the S&P 500. John posses an interesting question. Which carries more weight — the fact that the index gapped higher for the second day in a row, or, the fact that the index sold-off throughout the day? John suggests that these bullish opening gaps reflect global risk-on sentiment, as traders overseas bid up index futures overnight. However, today’s gap failed to follow-through to the upside, as US traders sold into the move throughout the session. As John points out, this demonstrates risk-off sentiment here in the US. Given these two pieces of contradictory evidence, which one carries more weight — the bullish opening gaps or the lack of subsequent follow through?