#SPX S&P500 Simple 3-month cross above 10-month (after below at least 10-months.) Post WW2. pic.twitter.com/pIBkdjK8yN
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) January 30, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Nautilus Research (@NautiliusCap). Chatter about the Golden Cross is getting louder and louder as the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average inches closer to crossing above its 200-day. Nautilus highlights a less-talked-about moving average crossover that will trigger at the end of the month tomorrow. The 3-month moving average is about to cross above the 10-month after spending nearly a year below it. As you can see in the table, this signal has historically been followed by above-average returns across all periods measured. The S&P 500 has always been higher 1-year later for an average gain of 17.02% (vs. 8.72% across all other periods). To be fair, words like ‘always’ and ‘never’ are dangerous, but this is yet another data point in favor of the bulls.