$VIX closed below 20 for the first time in almost a year
Historical cases of elevated but falling volatility led to more gains for stocks over the next 6-12 months:
Dec 2009: S&P +12.6% over next year
May 2003: S&P +16.4% over next year
July 1999: bubble lasted another 9 months pic.twitter.com/TpQh33h2d8— Troy Bombardia (@bullmarketsco) February 12, 2021
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Troy Bombardia (@bullmarketsco). It finally happened! The VIX closed below 20 for the first time in nearly a year! The VIX first gapped above 20 on Monday, February 24th, 2020 as the Covid crash began. It then spent the next 246 days elevated above 20. This was the longest streak above 20 since 2008 and the second-longest streak on record. As Troy points out, this scenario has typically led to further gains for the S&P 500 over the next 6-12 months. In a comment to The Chart Report, Troy said, “Volatility has been elevated for the past year. Many market participants have been nervous despite massive stock market gains. A decline in market volatility coupled with improving economic data could push stocks higher over the next 6-12 months, even if we first experience a pullback/correction.”