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Todayās Summary
Tuesday, August 15, 2023
Indices:Ā DowĀ -1.02%Ā | Nasdaq 100Ā -1.10%Ā | S&P 500Ā -1.16%Ā | Russell 2000Ā -1.29%Ā
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower. Health Care led but still fellĀ -0.37%. Energy lagged, droppingĀ -2.08%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fellĀ -1.84%Ā to $80.99 per barrel. Gold futures fellĀ -0.45%Ā to $1,935 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index was unchanged atĀ $103.20.
Crypto: Bitcoin fellĀ -0.80%Ā to $29,172. Ethereum fellĀ -0.90%Ā to $1,827.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a nine-month high of 4.217%.
Here areĀ the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Right on que the seasonal weakness (coupled with too many bulls showing up) appears to be happening.
Remember, years that were up >10% at the midpoint tended to consolidate around here.
This isn't the end of the š, but likely a pause before an end of year run. pic.twitter.com/CMeKkMwWAG
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) August 15, 2023
Todayās Chart of the Day was shared by Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick). The S&P 500 peaked on July 31st and turned lower as we turned the calendar. Itās currently downĀ -3.3%Ā in August after rising for five consecutive months. Ryan points out that this weakness is showing up right on schedule. The orange line represents the average performance of the S&P 500 during years in which it gainedĀ +10%Ā or more in the first half. Years that start strong tend to digest their gains in August through November before a year-end rally.
Quote of the Day
āListen to what the market is saying about others,
not what others are saying about the market.ā
-Richard Wyckoff
Trendlines over Headlines
The latest episode of Trendlines > Headlines is out!
This week,Ā JC OāHaraĀ joins us to make sense of the markets. JC is a technical strategist at Roth MKM. In the episode, we look at several noteworthy charts and discuss:
- The S&P 500
- Sentiment
- Weakness in Tech Stocks
- Strength in Energy Stocks
- Commodities, and more!
Top Links
Retail Investor REIT Allocations ā The Weekly Chart Storm
Callum Thomas points out that investors have abandoned REITs.
Market Getting Louder as Strength Fades ā Hi Mount Research
Willie Delwiche shows that bull market behavior is fading amid the recent volatility.
Is the Doc Copper Price Decline About to Turn Ugly Again? ā Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble examines the outlook for Copper.
Precious Metals Brace for a Breakdown ā All Star Charts
Ian Culley looks at what could be next for Precious Metals.
The Stock Market is Looking Less Bullish ā Stock Market TV
We joinedĀ The Morning ShowĀ earlier today to discuss some of the key trends and themes across the markets.
Top Tweets
Living on the edge $SPY pic.twitter.com/q6hVS5BLU9
— Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA šØš¦ (@MichaelNaussCMT) August 15, 2023
The S & P 500 closed below the 50dma for the first time since March 2023. It also closed below the trendline that coincides with the 50dma. The 50dma and the trendline are now resistance. pic.twitter.com/CQ3xbswmqD
— MarketSmith (@MarketSmith) August 15, 2023
$SPY in 2021 – Notice all of the orderly pullbacks to the 50-Day within the context of an uptrend. pic.twitter.com/cMDrb71Sab
— Braxton Furstein (@braxtonfurstein) August 15, 2023
Industrials are now retesting the July breakout
Normal retest or breakdown? $XLI pic.twitter.com/Jhea9q9XuK
— Matthew Timpane, CMT (@mtimpane) August 15, 2023
Now 10-months since the October S&P 500 low. The next 10-months? More return dispersion among historical sample set, but it does skew positive. pic.twitter.com/9j5fmn8wJA
— Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn) August 15, 2023
Are we looking at another failed breakout in oil?$CL_F pic.twitter.com/Aok06d5YjZ
— David Rath, CMT, CFA (@DJwrath) August 15, 2023
$VWO vs. $SPX pic.twitter.com/il5cjTFSgr
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) August 15, 2023
The Emerging Markets ETF $EEM ran into resistance at the 38.2% retracement of the 2021-2022 bear cycle. Momentum didn't even reach overbought conditions in the last advance. It needs more time to consolidate and build up steam before we see this major base breaks higher. pic.twitter.com/fSOqXkC4tN
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) August 15, 2023
Chart Of The Day – Retail Investor REIT Allocations
Retail investors are refusing to invest in REITs — omen or opportunity?
Yesterday I shared a chart on Twitter (well, what is now called āXā, but as Iāve been on it since 2009 I still call it Twitter) ā it showed fund managersā¦ pic.twitter.com/NQKqGo2Tow
— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) August 15, 2023
Fund managers are capitulating on their REIT positions at levels not seen since the Global Financial Crisis pic.twitter.com/QpcFRJYjwO
— Barchart (@Barchart) August 15, 2023
Real Estate – a few weeks ago the magazine cover crowd was saying this was interesting. What am I missing? pic.twitter.com/WjNUs5cOeO
ā Dan Russo, CMT (@DanRusso_CMT) August 15, 2023