Rotation to Kick Off Q3 ๐ The Daily Chart Report
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Todayโs Summary
Tuesday, July 1, 2025
Indices: Dow +0.91% | Russell 2000 +0.09% | S&P 500 -0.11% | Nasdaq -0.89%
Sectors: 9 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Materials led, gaining +2.59%. Technology lagged, falling -0.89%.
Commodities: Crude Oil rose +0.52% to $65.45 per barrel. Gold rose +1.27% to $3,350 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index closed lower for the ninth consecutive day, falling -0.14% to a three-year low of $96.65.
Crypto: Bitcoin is trading lower by -1.62% at $105,439. Ethereum is down -3.78% at $2,392.
Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +0.60% to 16.84.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury inched higher to 4.242%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
๐ Today's Chart of the Day was shared by Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts).
- Consumer Discretionary ($XLY) has been the worst sector this year, falling -2.2% YTD. However, it has been the fourth-best since the April 8th low, matching the S&P 500โs +24% gain.
- After gapping above the AVWAP from all-time highs six weeks ago, $XLY has coiled into a tight $10 range. It has struggled to clear $218, yet it has refused to break below $208, continuously finding support at its AVWAP.
- While Consumer Discretionary is the third-largest sector in the S&P 500, it's notably top-heavy. Just two namesโAmazon ($AMZN) and Tesla ($TSLA)โmake up nearly 40% of the sector, with weightings of 23.3% and 16.4% respectively.
The Takeaway: Despite gapping lower this morning, $XLY is on the verge of breaking out as it tests the upper-boundary of a tight six-week range at $218.
Quote of the Day
"Extreme hopes are born from extreme misery."
- Bertrand Russell
Top Links
Should We Expect Fireworks in July? ๐งจ๐๐๐ฅ - Carson Research
Ryan Detrick examines July seasonality for the S&P 500.
Officially Overboughtโฆ Again - CappNotes
Frank Cappeleri highlights the recent overbought reading in the S&P 500.
Halfway Home ๐งญ - The Daily Number
Grant Hawkridge breaks down sector performance in the first half of the year.
Chasing Beta - Alfonso's Daily Note
Alfonso De Pablos points out that High Beta stocks are breaking out versus Low-Volatility ($SPHB/$SPLV).
Market Seasonality Report โ July 2025 - StoneX
Matt Weller looks at July seasonality for stocks, volatility, crude oil, and gold.