Bitcoin Looks Spooky

The market speaks if you’re willing to listen.

And its language is Price.

Price holds the key. It’s never about one moving average or one indicator.

It’s about the context of those tools relative to price itself.

Right now, that message in Bitcoin isn’t sweet.

Price is giving us 4 warning signs that this is looking more like a trick than a treat.

Let’s start with the absolute chart of IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust).

• Warning #1: The failed breakout - buyers couldn’t sustain momentum above prior highs.
• Warning #2: The failed recovery - RSI barely reclaimed 50 before rolling over again. Momentum never flipped back to the bulls.
• Warning #3: Price has now broken below the April Low AVWAP, a key area where demand previously stepped in.

That’s three strikes on the absolute chart.

Then we look at IBIT relative to SPY  and that’s Warning #4.

The ratio is breaking lower with no major support until the spring lows. 

In plain English, Bitcoin is underperforming stocks and has room for that to continue. 

Could Bitcoin be setting up a fake-out before another run higher? 

Sure! Markets love to trick us before they treat us.

But that’s not the bet worth making when the evidence says otherwise.

For now, the message is simple: Let Bitcoin prove it deserves your capital before you hand it over.

Anyways, that’s my two cents.

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