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Today’s Summary
Monday, December 27th, 2021
Indices: Dow +0.98% | S&P 500 +1.38% | Nasdaq +1.39% | Russell 2000 +0.89%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining 2.19%. Utilities lagged but still rose 0.49%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures gained 2.41% to $75.57 per barrel. Gold futures inched lower by 0.16% $1,809 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index was flat.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield inched lower to 1.479%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
TOY (Turn of Year) Barometer has begun
by Wayne Whaley-Nov. 19 – Jan. 19.
-Bullish if >3% $SPX return during this time period.
-n=36
-Forward 12-month SPX returns = 16.4%
-% positive rate= 96%
-Down in 1987 & 2018 only
-Fired bullish in 2021, up 26%+$SPY pic.twitter.com/TQfAP6brCZ— Seth Golden (@SethCL) December 27, 2021
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Seth Golden (@SethCL). The famous Santa Claus Rally period began today, but we’ve talked enough about that recently so we won’t go there. In case you missed it, you can read all about the Santa Claus Rally here. Seth highlights another prescient seasonality indicator that’s worth paying attention to right now – the Turn of the Year Barometer. Wayne Whaley discovered this phenomenon years ago when he set out to find the “kingpin of seasonal barometers.” It has a pretty impressive track record at predicting the performance of the S&P 500 over the next year. A bullish signal triggers when the S&P 500 gains 3% or more in the two-month period between November 19th and January 19th. Of the 36 bullish signals since 1950, the S&P 500 was positive one year later about 95% of the time for an average gain of 16.4%. The Turn of the Year Barometer is off to a good start so far this year with the S&P up nearly 2% since November 19th. Keep an eye on how it plays out over the next few weeks.
Quote of the Day
“Become more humble as the market goes your way.”
– Bernard Baruch
Top Links
Santa Claus Rally Indicator Starts Today! – Almanac Trader
Seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch shares a few words on the famous Santa Claus Rally indicator.
Wall Street is Worried. Good! – All Star Charts
JC Parets takes a look at sentiment as we head into the new year.
Here Comes Santa Claus? – The Weekly Trend
In this podcast, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss some of the most noteworthy trends and technical developments across the markets.
Santa Claus Rally & Upstart Holdings (UPST) – Fairlead Strategies
Katie Stockton outlines a bullish trade on Upstart Holdings, $UPST.
My Favorite Charts of 2021 – A Wealth of Common Sense
Ben Carlson sums up this year in charts.
TrendSpider’s End of the Year Sale is Here!
Top Tweets
S&P 500 up 4.9% in four days, the strongest relief rally since the 2020 presidential election
??
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) December 27, 2021
S&P 500 closes at an all-time high for the 69th time this year. Only 1995 has had more all-time highs in a single calendar year. $SPX pic.twitter.com/8QejlCujHc
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) December 27, 2021
Today kicks off the well known Santa Claus Rally.
As you can see here, it is when these 7 days don't do well that we need to worry. https://t.co/cLTSdfzqQD pic.twitter.com/sedrlO3Udp
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 27, 2021
Santa Claus win rate is 81% over the past 21 years. Great table from @LeutholdGroup pic.twitter.com/ZIBQu3wDO1
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) December 27, 2021
Equal weighted $RSP
500+ stocks, not cap weighted.New all-time highs. pic.twitter.com/6xajiAuiyN
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) December 27, 2021
If you thought the S&P500s performance this year was dominated by a “few large stocks” you would be wrong.
Cap weighted has only outperformed Equal weighted by less than 0.50% YTD. pic.twitter.com/9NzRKI7Wh4
— Michael Antonelli (@BullandBaird) December 27, 2021
"The S&P 500 gaining 10% or more over a calendar quarter and finishing at the highest quarterly close in the history of the index has been a harbinger of doom!"
Said nobody ever. pic.twitter.com/Va9yHsOxCZ
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) December 27, 2021
50 meets 100 meets 200 in High Yield Credit Spreads with a false breakout in the works pic.twitter.com/5impqWazsU
— Drew Wells, CMT, CIMA® (@DrewTheCharts) December 27, 2021
#BTC Getting real close here… $BTC.X pic.twitter.com/tNmmktsO8N
— Rolando Santos (@TKPTrader) December 27, 2021
A great start to the Santa Rally.
Today's 1.4% gain for $SPX was the best start to the Santa Rally since 2000.
It's just the 3rd time since 1980 the $SPX has risen more than 1% on Day 1 of the Santa Rally period. The others: +2.4% in 2000 & +1.8% in 1982 (h/t @AlmanacTrader)
— Robert Hum (@HumOnTheMarkets) December 27, 2021
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!