Tuesday, December 21st, 2021
Indices: Dow +1.60% | S&P 500 +1.78% | Nasdaq +2.40% | Russell 2000 +2.95%
Sectors: 9 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining 2.85%. Utilities lagged, inching lower by 0.14%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose 3.66% to $71.12 per barrel. Gold futures slipped 0.33% $1,789 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index ticked lower by just 0.03%.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 1.465%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Here's how likely each day of the year is to finish in the green.
The next several days are some of the most likely days of the year to finish higher. pic.twitter.com/5EgclDeXeO
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 21, 2021
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick). The table shows the probability that the S&P 500 will close positive on each day of the year, using data from 1950-2020. Ryan points out that the next 11 trading days all have win rates over 50%. In a separate table, Ryan also pointed out that today kicks off one of the best three-day average returns of the year. The tape has been messy, and seasonality hasn’t really worked yet this month. December has historically been strong, but it’s really not until the back half of the month that those gains tend to show up. If history is any guide, the S&P 500 could finish 2021 on a strong note.
Quote of the Day
“Optimism sounds like a sales pitch. Pessimism sounds like someone trying to help you.”
– Morgan Housel
‘Twas 3 Nights Before Christmas – Quantifiable Edges
Rob Hanna takes a look at how the NASDAQ has historically performed around Christmas.
Bent But Not Broken – All Star Charts
JC Parets shares some thoughts on the current market environment.
December Volatility Spike – Bespoke
Bespoke points out that this December has been unusually volatile.
Bullish Trading Ahead of Christmas: Small Caps Lead – Almanac Trader
Seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch examines how the major indices have historically performed in the days leading up to Christmas.
Inflation Peaking? Watch These 3 Charts! – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble highlights three charts that suggest inflation may be peaking.
Today was the S&P 500's fourth-best day of this year.
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) December 21, 2021
DID YOU KNOW that you’re trading in the S&P 500’s third-rockiest December since 1987?
Yep, the S&P’s average daily move has been 1.1% this month, the third-largest for any December in 34 years (behind 2018, 2008, 2000)
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) December 21, 2021
— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) December 21, 2021
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) December 21, 2021
7 bounces in the last 11 months.
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) December 21, 2021
— Jim Denholm, CMT (@denholm_jim) December 21, 2021
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) December 21, 2021
That's a fairly clean set-up! pic.twitter.com/2kGQKdN9Hy
— Dan Russo, CMT (@DanRusso_CMT) December 21, 2021
Iron Ore very oversold pic.twitter.com/KmMK5nLdYv
— Strategas (@StrategasRP) December 21, 2021
— Theta Warrior (@ThetaWarrior) December 21, 2021
— Rolando Santos (@TKPTrader) December 21, 2021
My nephew asked what the stock market is like and I told him imagine throwing all your toys out the window every Monday morning and then spending the rest of the week picking them up.
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) December 21, 2021
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!