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Today’s Summary
Wednesday, December 7th, 2022
Indices: Dow 0.00% | S&P 500 -0.19% | Russell 2000 -0.31% | Nasdaq 100 -0.45%
Sectors: 3 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Health Care led, rising +0.82%. Consumer Discretionary lagged, falling -0.60%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -3.02% to a fresh 52-week low of $72.01 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.88% to $1,798 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.37% to $105.17.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -1.39% to $16,849. Ethereum dropped -3.10% to $1,232.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.419%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Keeping a close eye on TLT as bonds run into potential resistance just as a favorable seasonal window winds down. FWIW, almost everyone I follow is in the “Fed will pivot, rates will decline” camp, or so it seems.#sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/iHMdWeGvd6
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) December 7, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel). It’s a daily candlestick chart of the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, $TLT, year-to-date. $TLT is on track for its worst year since inception, down more than -26% YTD and -36% from its 2020 peak. However, it’s bounced more than +18% off its lows in less than two months, marking the largest rally since its peak. Jay points out that it’s testing its 150-day exponential moving average, while its seasonal trend flips from bullish to bearish. Sentiment also seems optimistic, with the Reddit crowd recently turning to Bonds for excitement. Will the recent momentum persist, or will Bonds find resistance?
Quote of the Day
“A trade to me is like a party, I want to arrive fashionably late, and I want to leave before the cops come.”
– Jeffery Kennedy
Top Links
S&P 500 (SPY) December Drop – Bespoke
Bespoke highlights some key points about the S&P 500’s recent performance.
Where Are the New Highs? – All Star Charts
JC Parets takes a look at new highs within the S&P 500.
What to Make of Falling Oil Prices, Rising Energy Stocks – Schaeffer’s Investment Research
Rocky White examines the divergence between Crude Oil and Energy Stocks.
Are Interest Rates Creating Giant Reversal Pattern? – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble breaks down a quarterly chart of the 10-year US Treasury yield.
Top Tweets
Ran-dumb:$SPY down 8 of 9 trading days?
It's then closed the next trading day higher 11 times in a row with 10 of 11 higher by 1% or more.
(Dates back to Aug 2011).
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) December 7, 2022
Familiar price action so far for $NDX. pic.twitter.com/d3W0Tq700B
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) December 7, 2022
SPY then and now. Then: overbought RSI + immediate pullback + gap down. Now: not overbought RSI + false breakout + 2 weeks of sideways. Less bearish = bullish? pic.twitter.com/7sZYo28rG2
— Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA (@brettvillaume) December 7, 2022
It sounds crazy, but four sectors are positive YTD.
(Adj for Dividends)$XLE $XLV $XLP $XLU pic.twitter.com/4YiEpk8VXy— Tyler Lovingood (@Tyler_Lovingood) December 7, 2022
4 technical reasons to look for potential near term support in $XLE
1- resistance broken tends to act as support
2- 38.2% retrace of Sept low to Nov hi
3- AVWAP from Sept low
4- 50 DMA is risingtrue support only known after fact, just a level of interest to diff participants pic.twitter.com/T0T4Cz4iUx
— Brian Shannon, CMT (@alphatrends) December 7, 2022
Zombie cos: can I haz gains tho?
Market gods: no
*stock market rebounds on Oct. 12*
Zombie cos: how about now?
Market gods: LOLOLOL no pic.twitter.com/YyfSggRrRS
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) December 7, 2022
Stocks break down relative to bonds. $TLT $SPY pic.twitter.com/WFqF2zf020
— Ian Culley (@IanCulley) December 7, 2022
$TLT initial resistance? pic.twitter.com/0gNs9d5ghm
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) December 7, 2022
Ten year treasury yields fall through 100 day moving average. pic.twitter.com/1858eoIRhR
— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) December 7, 2022
Crude oil breaking down to its lowest levels of the year pic.twitter.com/lEwObX67n8
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) December 7, 2022
Oil making new lows.
Where to next?
The mid to low $60's are looking likely.
How price gets there is another thing. #OOT #Oil $USO $CL pic.twitter.com/X6qVHvkpfk— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) December 7, 2022
Gasoline is now down 3% on the year after being up over 90% at its peak in June. Stunning reversal that resembles the 2nd half of 2008 when commodity prices plummeted as the global recession deepened.
Charting via @ycharts pic.twitter.com/A1yhqoJSMz
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) December 7, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!