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Today’s Summary
Thursday, December 1st, 2022
Indices: Dow -0.56% | Russell 2000 -0.26% | S&P 500 -0.09% | Nasdaq 100 +0.10%
Sectors: 5 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Communications led, gaining +0.58%. Financials lagged, falling -0.58%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +1.07% to $81.41 per barrel. Gold futures jumped +3.14% to $1,815 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index dropped -1.08%.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -1.17% to $16,969. Ethereum moved lower by -1.42% to $1,277.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.510%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$DXY Dollar Index is below its 200-day simple moving average for the first time in 379 trading days pic.twitter.com/RYOFGJ8Wxc
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) December 1, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter). It’s a daily candlestick chart of the US Dollar Index year-to-date. John points out that the Dollar Index just broke below its 200-day moving average. It spent 379 trading days above its 200-day moving average, marking the longest streak on record. As we know, Dollar strength has been putting pressure on stocks and risk assets all year. This is the breakdown that the bulls have been waiting for. Stocks will likely continue to rebound if the Dollar continues to weaken.
Quote of the Day
“Today’s headlines and history’s judgment are rarely the same.”
– Condoleezza Rice
Top Links
Five Good Signs for The Bulls in 2023 – Carson Group
Ryan Detrick outlines the bull case for stocks in 2023.
Bears Hibernating – Bespoke
Bespoke breaks down the results of the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
Will Rates Finally Fall? – All Star Charts
Ian Culley examines the outlook for interest rates domestically and abroad.
Are Investment Grade Bonds (LQD) About to Rally? – See it Market
Chris Kimble takes a look at the rebound in Investment Grade Bonds.
The Fed Chair Ignites a Rally – PFT Trading
Greg Rieben highlights some of the most noteworthy developments across the markets.
Top Tweets
Dow Jones Industrial Average quite close to retracing 75% of its decline since January
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/9NpmZpcwvJ— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) December 1, 2022
Here's another bullish takeaway from the recent strength.
S&P 500 >5% back-to-back months. This type of persistent strength isn't the sign of a bear market rally, but likely the start of a new bull.
Previous 13 times it happened? Higher yr later every time and up 22.2% on avg. pic.twitter.com/WLH7Ww8Fwd
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 1, 2022
Since 1950 there have been 3 times as many positive (54) as negative (18) Decembers for $SPX: pic.twitter.com/i9L7AO0Iho
— Optuma (@Optuma) December 1, 2022
Stocks are going up in price exactly where they historically go up in price. pic.twitter.com/y1tyjRSw0B
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) December 1, 2022
January is the strongest month in year 3 of Pres Cycle up 83% of the time on avg return of 3.4%…. pic.twitter.com/2WkizFpSUb
— PhilipPorterEvans (@Porter_Evans_) December 1, 2022
Month-end "Inverse Traffic Light" update puts the $SPX back into the CAUTION zone & out of the DANGER zone.
Nov 30th was a nice, high-volume, bullish candle… and if it can hold the 3,900 level (or at worst, the 3,700 Nov higher-low), bulls could start coming out of the gates. pic.twitter.com/FvwYdyD8ys
— Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CEPA (@AdamKoos) December 1, 2022
Dow has been leading since the summer, could we see a rotation back to small caps into year-end? Momentum is making a lower-high as the ratio b/w Dow and R2K hits the prior high. $DIA $IWM pic.twitter.com/xlHvWw2Pfz
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) December 1, 2022
The 12-month gap between Value and Growth performance is at its second-widest negative extreme going back to 1976. @NDR_Research pic.twitter.com/0Ovua5pqRk
— Rob Anderson (@_rob_anderson) December 1, 2022
Trendline violations, overbought readings, higher highs
This is how new uptrends start, and we're seeing a lot of it from international indexes right now $EFA pic.twitter.com/GhrFBogUHN
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) December 1, 2022
Yesterday, Emerging Markets ETF $EEM printed a 2nd consecutive PnF buy signal for the first time since Nov. 2020 and Developed Markets ETF $EFA reentered a positive trend for the first time since May 2020. However, each fund is now trading in heavily overbought territory. pic.twitter.com/z5J1ZCyY7j
— Nasdaq Dorsey Wright (@DorseyWrightDWA) December 1, 2022
HYG -a generous 50% retrace of last swing down. pic.twitter.com/tBBWDfNTRh
— Linda Raschke (@LindaRaschke) December 1, 2022
Today, US Dollar Index $DXY closed below its 200-Day Moving Average for the first time since June 2021, ending its longest streak above its long-term average in history. pic.twitter.com/8eL7dhzzf4
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) December 1, 2022
Human nature. Groupthink. The madness of crowds. Falling in love with the trend. Call it what you like.
Same as it ever was… #sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/ULMGHvaCoZ— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) December 1, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!