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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, November 21, 2023
Indices: Dow -0.18% | S&P 500 -0.20% | Nasdaq 100 -0.58% | Russell 2000 -1.32%
Sectors: 4 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Health Care led, gaining +0.60%. Technology lagged, falling -0.81%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures were flat (-0.08%) to $77.77 per barrel. Gold futures rose +1.08% to $2,002 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.16% to $103.61.
Crypto: Bitcoin dropped -4.59% to $35,758. Ethereum dropped -4.38% to $1,934.
Volatility: The Volatility Index fell -0.60% to a two-month low of 13.34.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.395%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Short-term uptrend still intact after $NVDA earnings report pic.twitter.com/nzZDPppRha
— Cam Hui, CFA (@HumbleStudent) November 21, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Cam Hui (@HumbleStudent). The S&P 500 ($SPY) snapped a five-day winning streak today, slipping just -0.22%. With $SPY up more than +10% in less than a month, it’s hard to imagine the rally continuing at its current pace. However, Cam points out that the rising trendline off the Oct. 27th low remains intact, even after a slightly negative reaction to $NVDA’s earnings after hours. If $SPY breaks this short-term trendline, it would indicate that the current leg higher is slowing. However, it’s reasonable to expect higher highs if it remains intact in the coming days.
Quote of the Day
“Markets may initially trend for fundamental reasons, but prices overshoot by ludicrous amounts. At some point, prices go up today simply because they went up yesterday.”
– Michael Platt
Trendlines > Headlines
A brand new episode of Trendlines over Headlines is out!
This week, Scott Redler joins us to make sense of the markets. Scott is the Co-Founder and Chief Strategist at T3 Trading Group. He gives us a glimpse into his trading process and shares his thoughts on the current market environment.
Top Links
A Long-Term Look at the Wednesday Before Thanksgiving – Quantifiable Edges
Rob Hanna points out that the Wednesday before Thanksgiving (tomorrow) has historically been strong.
Reversals and Resolutions: Checking in on Growth vs. Value – Grindstone Intelligence
Austin Harrison looks at the Growth vs. Value ratio as it approaches a critical inflection point.
Equities / Commodities 12-Year Cycle Performance Outlook and Update – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble breaks down a ratio chart of Stocks vs. Commodities.
How to Play the Stock Market’s Historic Swing – CappThesis
Frank Cappelleri examines the recent rally in the S&P 500 and what’s needed for it to continue.
Technical Tuesdays 📈 with The Chart Report – Twitter Spaces
In case you missed it, here’s the recording from our Twitter spaces earlier today.
Top Tweets
$TNX continues to roll over.$SPY bullish MA cross + MAs turned up. pic.twitter.com/iALAGdoNka
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@bluechipdaily) November 21, 2023
$qqq afternoon glance. Pre- $NVDA pic.twitter.com/JZkIQrKLBt
— Scott Redler (@RedDogT3) November 21, 2023
Still seeing strong contango in the $VX term structure and a decent spread between the Dec contract and spot $VIX. Maybe Santa's coming after all. 🎅😏 pic.twitter.com/9GlwextDgx
— Jim Carroll (@vixologist) November 21, 2023
Technology ($XLK) is the most top heavy sector: top 5 companies are 60% of the weighting.
Industrials ($XLI) is the most diffuse sector: 80% of the exposure is outside oft the top 5 companies. pic.twitter.com/u2aA4LbtHG
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) November 22, 2023
Today's Fed meeting minutes hit home how close the Fed is to the end of this high-rate saga.
In other words, 5% rates on cash probably won't stick around forever.
And usually when rates peak in a cycle, it's better to buy stocks than stash your cash pic.twitter.com/4VisQDY77W
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) November 21, 2023
Cash is comforting, but opportunity cost is a real threat. pic.twitter.com/GajCkSNsVq
— Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn) November 21, 2023
10-year Treasury yield back below 4.4% pic.twitter.com/nVF0QaR56C
— Katie Greifeld (@kgreifeld) November 21, 2023
#Gold is in rally mode this morning, back above $2K to test 6-month highs near $2010.
With yields on the decline, the all-time record highs near $2080 aren't out of reach this year if we get a bullish breakout soon. pic.twitter.com/TmcIQmNrPx
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) November 21, 2023
Gold is running back to a former resistance level. $GC_F $GLD
Will it break through? pic.twitter.com/Z4mk1Ac9S7
— Ian Culley (@IanCulley) November 21, 2023
Silver Miners trying to make the turn…$SIL pic.twitter.com/BxyzfyL1Xx
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) November 21, 2023
yes, for sure i agree that Bitcoin has been strong since the July 31st $SPX closing highs:$BTCUSD +28.2%$URA +28.3%
but uranium stocks have been stronger… pic.twitter.com/sK9F3WrTN8
— David Cox, CMT, CFA (@DavidCoxRJ) November 21, 2023