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Today’s Summary
Monday, November 6, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq 100 +0.37% | S&P 500 +0.18% | Dow +0.10% | Russell 2000 -1.29%
Sectors: 4 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Health Care led, gaining +0.67%. Real Estate lagged, falling -1.37%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +0.39% to $80.82 per barrel. Gold futures fell –0.53% to $1,989 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.18% to $105.26.
Crypto: Bitcoin was unchanged at $35,042. Ethereum rose +0.39% to $1,902.
Volatility: The Volatility Index was flat at 14.90.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.645%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Renewed leadership from Tech would be huge. This is one of the most important charts out there $XLK $SPX pic.twitter.com/GE6pzPa5y9
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) November 6, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Austin Harrison (@meanstoatrend). It’s a ratio chart of the Technology sector vs. the S&P 500. Technology was the strongest sector in the first half of the year. However, it’s been digesting those gains since the Summer. In that time, this ratio has formed a five-month base within an uptrend, and resistance has been tested several times. Technology is the largest sector of the S&P 500 by a wide margin, representing more than 28% of the index. A breakout from this ratio would be very beneficial for the S&P 500 as it would mark renewed leadership from the largest and most important sector.
Quote of the Day
“Warren Buffett’s net worth is $84.5 billion. Of that, $84.2 billion was accumulated after his 50th birthday.”
– The Psychology of Money
Top Links
Four Reasons for a Year-End Rally – The Next Big Move
Joe Fahmy lays out four reasons why stocks are poised to rally in the final months of the year.
A Look At Zweig Thrust Signals – Quantifiable Edges
Rob Hanna highlights the rare Zweig Breadth Thrust that fired last week.
FAANG+ Flatline – Bespoke
Bespoke examines Mega-Cap’s relative strength.
Fill The Gap Episode Thirty-Three, with Jonathan Krinsky, CMT – CMT Association
In this podcast, Tyler Wood and David Lundgren sit down with Jonathan Krinsky, Chief Market Technician at BTIG.
Stock Trade Ideas for November 7 2023 – Alphatrends
Brian Shannon highlights some potential setups heading into the new week.
Top Tweets
That's six green days in a row for the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow Jones! 🟢
First time since February, can they keep the streak going? pic.twitter.com/hX4CDf6FvK
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) November 6, 2023
You can look at today's US stock market performance in two ways:
1. $SPX (and crew) serious throttling with smallest day's range (as %age of spot) in 7 weeks
2. Optimism with a 6th day's advance matching longest climb for SPX since Nov 8, 2021 pic.twitter.com/M8R21u9y6M— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) November 6, 2023
$VIX down 7 sessions in a row.
Under 15 for the first time since Sept 19 pic.twitter.com/6dlBhIc7Ys— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) November 6, 2023
Last week's rally arrived just as sentiment had pivoted to the bearish side. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey flipped from 21% bearish to 50% bearish and from 51% bullish to 24% bullish, just in time for the change in narrative. pic.twitter.com/2MrJgHmNP6
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) November 6, 2023
Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator fired on Friday. This represents a sudden and swift improvement in breadth conditions after they have been beaten down. Check the last ten years and you'll see this hits rarely, and is usually pretty bullish. Big exception in 2015-16! $SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/UOkPNPbGzn
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) November 6, 2023
So the breadth thrust indicators fired right as bullish seasonality in yr 3 of the pres cycle gets ready to resume (on average)? Make of it what you will. Day 210 is ~the end of Oct. pic.twitter.com/RdDjPcTVrU
— Dan Russo, CMT (@DanRusso_CMT) November 6, 2023
Even factors have seasonality. Historically high-beta $SPHB outperforms low beta in November and December, but reverses meaningfully in January even though $SPX seasonality remains robust thru the month. pic.twitter.com/vhWSJqi3w6
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) November 6, 2023
I would like to see the % of stocks above their 200ma, get above its Oct high, otherwise you are still in a series of lower highs and lower lows. pic.twitter.com/K92H6k2rMp
— Stacey.A.Lee (@BBaxter2020) November 6, 2023
SPX trend status? Healthy price reversal; lagging breadth profile. pic.twitter.com/KiF3je1c9d
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) November 6, 2023
S&P 500 returns in 2023 have been driven by its largest constituents, which is not uncommon in cap-weighted indices, but the magnitude has been dramatic. Only 28.3% of the index's stocks have outperformed this year, the lowest since 1998 and the second lowest since 1973. 1/2 pic.twitter.com/JCRF6fjO64
— Rob Anderson (@_rob_anderson) November 6, 2023
Two of the magnificent seven, $AAPL and $MSFT, are approaching their all-time highs once again on the back of this market bump. pic.twitter.com/exy0lCosWc
— Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) November 6, 2023
Does $MSFT look like a bear market to your eyes?
Looks like a massive C&H to me
Thoughts? pic.twitter.com/DeNBSjLe5v
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 6, 2023