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Today’s Summary
Monday, October 18th, 2021
Indices: Dow -0.10% | S&P 500 +0.34% | Nasdaq +0.84% | Russell 2000 +0.10%
Sectors: 7 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Consumer Discretionary led for the second day in a row, rising 1.22% to a record high. Utilities lagged for the second day in a row, falling 0.96%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell 0.91% to $81.53 per barrel. Gold futures slipped 0.20% to $1,765 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index was unchanged.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 1.602%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Topdown Charts (@topdowncharts). The black line shows the S&P 500’s average seasonal pattern using data from 1990-2019. The red line shows how the S&P 500 has performed so far this year. We’ve all heard the adage; “Sell in May & Go Away” but don’t forget; “Buy in October & Get Yourself Sober!” As you can see, the S&P 500 tends to bottom in mid-October and rally until May. Sell in May & Go Away didn’t work too well this year, with the S&P 500 gaining roughly 7% since May. While some view this as a failure of seasonality, we see it as a testament to how strong the underlying trend is. Seasonality is just one of many data points to consider, but it’s important to know that the calendar is shifting from bearish to bullish.
Quote of the Day
“There are no secrets to success. It is the result of preparation, hard work, and learning from failure.”
– Colin Powell
Top Links
What Bubble? – All Star Charts
JC Parets refutes the idea that Stocks are in a bubble.
Ari Wald & Katie Stockton on the Breakout in Copper – CNBC
In this quick clip, Ari Wald & Katie Stockton discuss what the breakout in Copper could mean for the stock market and the economy.
Bearish Setups in Coffee and Natural Gas Charts – Andrew Thrasher
Andrew Thrasher points out that Coffee and Nat Gas futures look overextended after surging higher in recent months.
Every Time in 25 Years Cotton Did This, Prices Plunged – SentimenTrader
Jason Goepfert explains that Cotton futures could reverse lower if history is any guide.
Almost There – The Weekly Trend
In this podcast, David Zarling and Ian McMillan highlight several noteworthy technical developments.
Top Tweets
Each and every month the last 11 months have seen the S&P 500 set a new all-time high at some point during the month.
9 trading days left to see if this streak can make it to 12 (my vote is no). $spx
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) October 18, 2021
$SPX up 4 days for 1st time since Aug 25
Oddly, last 7 times up 4 days, it rose at least 5 days
Since Covid low, when up 4 days, $SPX made at least one higher close within the next 7 days in all except one instance: Oct 2020 into the pre-election low (arrow)
ht @TradewellApp pic.twitter.com/gYUnDMjVFB
— Urban Carmel (@ukarlewitz) October 18, 2021
World's most beloved sideways. $IWM pic.twitter.com/YZqFuWcKQI
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) October 18, 2021
New high for cyclicals vs. defensives pic.twitter.com/InReG28TKH
— Strategas (@StrategasRP) October 18, 2021
$XLY: $XLP breakout of 10 month range pic.twitter.com/dXK3NxDbVw
— Bailey.Baxter2020 (@BBaxter2020) October 18, 2021
is this usually bullish for stocks or bearish for stocks? pic.twitter.com/MYTVM3TH9M
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) October 18, 2021
Consumer offense/defense ratio is flat out breaking out to the upside. #notbearish $SPX $XLY $XLP $RCD $RHS pic.twitter.com/eXTYW2pbQz
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) October 18, 2021
$RCD / $RHS has been just as strong as $XLY / $XLP… so shut up about your $AMZN & $TSLA heavyweight story! pic.twitter.com/Pd9AK1yeIF
— Grant Hawkridge (@granthawkridge) October 18, 2021
The seasonal peak for commodities begins…now.
It's not to be used literally, but historically "stuff" has had a pretty rough time of it this time of year. pic.twitter.com/an5AyuB99z
— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) October 18, 2021
The price of natural gas is denied once again at a very familiar spot…#naturalgas #energy pic.twitter.com/IbnJye8YtM
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) October 18, 2021
Here's the Copper/Gold Ratio hitting new multi-year highs. pic.twitter.com/RyAOK4kKDf
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) October 18, 2021
3. Speaking of seasonality…#Bitcoin $BTC pic.twitter.com/mBa7dsEtWo
— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) October 16, 2021
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!