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Today’s Summary
Wednesday, October 5th, 2022
Indices: Nasdaq 100 -0.08% | Dow -0.14% | S&P 500 -0.20% | Russell 2000 -0.74%
Sectors: 3 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led by a wide margin, gaining +2.07%. Utilities lagged, dropping -2.22%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +1.43% to $87.76 per barrel. Gold futures fell -0.56% to $1,721 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.91%.
Crypto: Bitcoin slipped -0.88% to $20,164. Ethereum inched lower by -0.54% to $1,357.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.755%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$SPX slope of the 50 DMA, although negative, is diverging from price. Similar to 2002 and 2009 market bottoms. pic.twitter.com/xW9OArhhh7
— Shane C. Murphy (@murphycharts) October 4, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Shane Murphy (@murphycharts). Shane points out an interesting divergence between the S&P 500 and the slope of its 50-day moving average. The S&P 500 undercut its June lows last week, while the slope of its 50-day moving average wasn’t nearly as negative as it was at the June lows. The charts on the right show that both the 2002 & 2009 bear market bottoms featured a similar divergence. In a comment to The Chart Report, Shane said “Other bottoms in 1962, 1966, and 1982 displayed a similar divergence. However, it failed to mark the lows in 1970 & 1973. Five out of seven is good enough to grab my attention.”
Quote of the Day
“The day that you experience absolutely no emotion as you are stopped out of a properly managed losing trade is the day you gain the potential to become wildly successful in the markets.”
– Jay Kaeppel
Top Links
7 Things to Know About the Historically Strong Fourth Quarter – Carson Group
Ryan Detrick lays out seven stats on how the S&P 500 has historically performed in the final quarter of the year.
Oil and Stocks Mix it Up – Bespoke
Bespoke points out that it’s rare to see Stocks and Crude oil spike higher together like we’ve seen this week.
What to Expect After Gold’s Multi-Month Selloff – Schaeffer’s Investment Research
Rocky White examines how Gold has historically performed after a six-month losing streak.
Is it Time to Buy Gold? – All Star Charts
Louis Sykes takes a look at the failed breakdown in Gold.
Annie Duke – Why Investors Are Great Quitters – The Meb Faber Show
Here’s a great podcast with Meb Faber and former professional poker player, Annie Duke. They discuss the psychology of being wrong and knowing when to walk away.
Top Tweets
Monday and Tuesday: the S&P's first back-to-back rallies of 2.5% or more since Dec. 2008.
Wednesday: a 1.6% intraday rally that ALMOST turned a big loss into a positive day.
It's something, even if we don't know what that something is yet.
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) October 5, 2022
Mon & Tues saw the best 2-day start (+5.73%) to any month since the inception of the modern $SPX in 1957. Here is the full list of months that were up > 3% after the 1st 2 trading days. $SPY pic.twitter.com/QNY8o1OJan
— Quantifiable Edges (@QuantifiablEdgs) October 5, 2022
Breadth had gotten so bad, we've seen a 6% rally to start the week and the S&P's 10-day A/D line is still slightly oversold.https://t.co/H4p1RcpfIn pic.twitter.com/zqdnMkRm27
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 5, 2022
Yesterday, Oct 4th, each of the Dow Jones Industrial, Transportation, and Utility Averages registered 100% advancing issues (and volume). That's happened 25 other times since January '88. Here's a summary table of some following $SPX returns & drawdowns.$DJIA $DJTA $DJUA pic.twitter.com/6bEfT9elcT
— Jonathan Harrier, CMT (@jonathanharrier) October 5, 2022
Leadership over the last couple of days has not come from growth areas. Check out Discretionary getting rejected at overhead supply on a relative basis. Instead, it's been Energy, Materials, and Industrials leading the charge pic.twitter.com/HRY4VKCvsG
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) October 5, 2022
How has each sector done since the August highs in S&Ps? pic.twitter.com/0ICcmqMmce
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) October 5, 2022
$AAPL and $TSLA should see more of a bounce, but the weekly MACDs and long-term support levels make a compelling case to sell strength #fairleadstrategies
(Charts excerpted from today's research – request a sample report here: https://t.co/MvCuNDgckJ) pic.twitter.com/yUr4p0IBtw— Katie Stockton, CMT (@StocktonKatie) October 5, 2022
It seems highly likely that $TSLA will drop down to the ⚓️VWAP (green) from the June 2020 breakout. That is approx 212
Eventually the COVID AVWAP ~182 (orange) could come into play
not advice pic.twitter.com/c92rFLs4wd
— Brian Shannon, CMT (@alphatrends) October 5, 2022
important area for the dollar here $DXY pic.twitter.com/dFt6lQiGdK
— bostoncharts (@bostonchaahhts) October 5, 2022
Was a pullback to be expected with the slope increasing? Of course it was.
But is the up trend still intact? Yes.$DXY #USD pic.twitter.com/ZkIh9fyn5i
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) October 5, 2022
New filing for a (wait for it)…. Inverse Cramer ETF! Ticker is $SJIM is Tuttle. Ht @syouth1 pic.twitter.com/hIF9YyySfG
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) October 5, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!