Monday, October 4th, 2021
Indices: US Stocks kicked off the week on a sour note, with the Dow falling 324 points or 0.94%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 1.30% and 2.14%, respectively. The Russell 2000 declined 1.08%.
Sectors: 3 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining 1.63%. Tech lagged, dropping 2.32%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures gained 2.29% to a seven-year high of $77.62 per barrel. Gold futures rose 0.52% to $1,768 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell 0.29%.
Interest Rates: The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 1.482%
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
I'm not a proponent of buying at resistance.
— Drew Wells, CMT, CIMA® (@DrewTheCharts) October 4, 2021
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Drew Wells (@DrewTheCharts). It’s a weekly candlestick chart of the Energy sector ETF, $XLE, over the past seven years. The top-weighted holdings in this ETF include $XOM, $CVX, $SLB, $COP, and $EOG. The Energy sector has been exhibiting some serious relative strength lately. It’s the best performing sector year-to-date by a wide margin, and it’s the only sector showing a positive return over the past month. Rising Crude Oil prices have undoubtedly been a tailwind for the sector, with Crude hitting a 7-year high today. However, Drew points out that $XLE still needs to clear a solid long-term resistance level around $55-$57. This level has been a major inflection point over the past decade. It acted as crucial support in 2011, 2016, 2018, and 2019, but it finally broke in 2020 and turned into resistance. A break out above $57 would be very positive for Energy bulls. But until then, keep an eye on how price behaves around this potential resistance level.
Quote of the Day
“After years of observing and studying market cycles, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that sector analysis is just as important as overall market timing. In fact, in certain markets, it is even more important.”
– Stan Weinstein
200-DMA Breakdown for FANG+ – Bespoke
Bespoke points out that the NYSE FANG+ index broke below its 200-day moving average today.
Typical October Trading: Volatile Start Sets Up Rally Through Month’s End – Almanac Trader
Seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch examines how Stocks have historically fared throughout October.
Price Drives Sentiment, Not the Other Way Around – MurphyCharts
Shane Murphy shares some charts and notes on the current market environment.
4th Quarter Stock Market Update – Libertas Wealth Management
In this video, Adam Koos takes a look at Stocks, Commodities, Bonds, Bitcoin, and Gold.
At Your Leisure – The Weekly Trend
In this podcast, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss some of the most important technical developments including, seasonality, the Dollar, the surge in Commodities, and more.
The S&P 500 is now 5.2% off its closing high from last month.
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) October 4, 2021
The S&P 500 correction is now 5.2%, the largest correction since last November (which bottomed on the eve of the election).
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) October 4, 2021
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) October 4, 2021
It's been complicated to diversify over the past month, with the Nasdaq down more than 7%, the S&P down about 5%, & an index of Treasuries down 2.1%. The standout performer in that period: oil prices, which are up more than 12% in the period. pic.twitter.com/56fWt7rzNV
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) October 4, 2021
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) October 4, 2021
— Christian Fromhertz (@cfromhertz) October 4, 2021
— True Insights (@true_insights_) October 4, 2021
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 4, 2021
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) October 4, 2021
— Ian Culley (@IanCulley) October 4, 2021
Natgas futures prices zooming up, but curiously the big-money "commercial" traders are still net long as a group, as of last week's COT Report. We have seen such price spikes before, and the commercials get to neutral or short as they are ending. Message: It's not over yet. pic.twitter.com/KsmjBkJUvk
— Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) October 4, 2021
Gasoline prices are going to bite you. pic.twitter.com/8CnwJ2a6mk
— Patrick Rooney (@patrickrooney) October 4, 2021
Oil at $-37 Oil at $75 pic.twitter.com/kDVWUnr5gT
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) October 3, 2021
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!