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Today’s Summary
Monday, October 3rd, 2022
Indices: Dow +2.66% | Russell 2000 +2.65% | S&P 500 +2.59% | Nasdaq 100 +2.36%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led by a wide margin, gaining +5.65%. Consumer Discretionary lagged but still inched higher by +0.10%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +5.21% to $83.63 per barrel. Gold futures gained +1.79% to $1,702 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.46%.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +2.88% to $19,600. Ethereum gained +3.48% to $1,321.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.643%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Traders Almanac (@AlmanacTrader). Seasonal and cyclical trends have been working against investors all year. We’re coming off the weakest month, within the weakest year of the 4-year Presidential Cycle. The good news is that we’re currently in the ‘Sweet Spot’ where a lot of these cyclical headwinds turn into tailwinds. The blue line is a composite of three cycles; the 1-year seasonal pattern, the 4-year Presidential Election Cycle, and the Decennial Cycle. In other words, it combines all years since 1946, all midterm years, and all second years of decades. As you can see, this composite has caught several major turning points in 2022 including the June lows and the August highs. If the S&P 500 continues to track this composite, we could see a strong fourth quarter. For more on this, check our recent interview with Jeff.
Quote of the Day
“Buy in October and get yourself sober.”
– Jeffery Hirsch
Top Links
2%+ Starts to a Quarter: A Baker’s Dozen – Bespoke
Bespoke points out that today was the best start to a quarter since 2013.
All Hands on Deck – The Weekly Trend
In this podcast, the team at Adaptiv discusses some of the most significant technical developments to be aware of right now.
New Dow Theory Confirmed Sell Signal – Stock Charts
David Keller examines what Dow Theory could be telling us about the market.
There’s More Upside than Downside for Long-Term Investors – TKer
Sam Ro highlights three reasons long-term investors should remain optimistic.
Trendlines Over Headlines with Special Guest, Jeffery Hirsch – The Chart Report
In case you missed it, check out the latest episode of Trendlines over Headlines. This week, Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Traders Almanac joins us to discuss October seasonality, the ‘Sweet Spot’ of the Presidential Cycle, and more!
Top Tweets
Hello, Q4 pic.twitter.com/lncFm1SxFO
— Stocktwits (@Stocktwits) October 3, 2022
The $SPX has opened the quarter with its biggest single-day rally since the July 27th, the day the Fed hiked rates 50bps pic.twitter.com/ZheLUbKBi3
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) October 3, 2022
#ES_F, daily
Traps…
Bull traps worked like magic in this bear market.
Will the October bear trap work for bulls?
We'll know the answer soon. pic.twitter.com/TBIxralYPA
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) October 3, 2022
Isn't that special? $SPX #churchlady pic.twitter.com/CKQ88fAGwU
— Michael Kahn, CMT (@mnkahn) October 3, 2022
Good news: Q4 has historically been the best quarter for the stock market ? pic.twitter.com/zYV4KBixQS
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) October 3, 2022
Seasonality doesn't make the top 5 conditional factors we monitor, but it does get bullish for $SPX here, and more influential in mid-term years. pic.twitter.com/1PL8Va1GBh
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) October 3, 2022
"The S&P has bottomed around October 9th in prior midterm years" – @AriWald pic.twitter.com/zFsS4mc2S8
— Sam Ro ? (@SamRo) October 2, 2022
As of Sept 27, S&P 500 futures positioning remains net-short, but has become slightly less short in the last two weeks. Sooo from very bearish to one tick better than very bearish. pic.twitter.com/ColCD07u0x
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) October 3, 2022
The Wilshire 5000 was down 25.9% in the last 9 months, one of the worst 9-month periods for stocks in the last 50 years.
Has selling AFTER large 9-month declines been a good strategy for long-term investors in the past? No.
Here's the data… pic.twitter.com/OjZnHMF7qc
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 3, 2022
Interesting fact:
Last time silver went up as much as today was November 2008.
That was the bottom and silver went up 400% in the next two and a half years. pic.twitter.com/ei5hBiA4CM
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 3, 2022
Bitcoin's volatility is back in the compression zone. I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong move this week.#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/LxqD7VQzbv
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) October 2, 2022
2022 was the worst start to a year for the S&P 500 since 1974 and 2002.
Worth noting that the 1974 bear bottomed on October 3, while the 2002 bear bottomed on October 9.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 3, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!