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Today’s Summary
Thursday, October 1st, 2020
Indices: US Stocks closed higher in today’s session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average inching up 35 points or 0.13%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.53% and 1.42%, respectively. Small-Caps outperformed with the Russell 2000 gaining 1.56%.
Sectors: Real Estate led, gaining 1.60%. Energy lagged for the third straight day, dropping 3.07%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell 3.73% to $38.72 per barrel. Gold futures moved higher by 1.10% to $1,912 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index inched lower by 0.09%.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 0.684%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
What happens to the S&P 500 when the usually weak Q3 is up a lot (>7.5%)?
Well, Q4 has gained every single time, up 11 for 11, with an average return of 7.3%. pic.twitter.com/QIMWsrUzAW
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 1, 2020
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Ryan Detrick of LPL Financial Research (@RyanDetrick). The S&P 500 gained an impressive 8.5% in Q3. This is noteworthy considering that Q3 has historically been the weakest quarter of the year, with an average return of just 0.60%. Ryan points out that strong gains in Q3 could bode well for the remainder of the year. Going back to 1950, Q4 has always been positive after a gain of 7.5% or more in Q3. Many continue to fear that the market has risen too far, too fast. However, this particular piece of evidence suggests that further gains are not only possible but probable. For more on this, make sure to check out the full note from the team at LPL Financial Research.
Quote of the Day
“Most of the successful people I’ve known are the ones who do more listening than talking.”
– Bernard Baruch
Top Links
October and the Fourth Quarter in Six Charts – LPL Financial Research
Here’s a must-read from the team at LPL Financial Research. They break down how Stocks have historically performed in Q4 and October, specifically in election years.
How Current Returns Stack Up to History – Bespoke
Bespoke compares the S&P 500’s current returns to its historical average returns.
Commercial Hedgers Hate Copper – All Star Charts
Tom Bruni shares his thoughts on Copper futures as they test a key level.
Seasonals Are Back in Style Again – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch offers his perspective on seasonality as we head into October.
Homebuilders Breaking Out to New Record Highs – Big Trends Monthly
In this video, Josh Brown and JC Parets highlight some of the major long-term trends developing across the markets.
Top Tweets
Happy fourth quarter.
It's the most wonderful tiiiiiiiiiime of the year (typically, for stocks).
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 3.9% in the fourth quarter, by far its best return among four quarters.
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) October 1, 2020
3rd Qtr:
1 $BTC
2 $SPX
3 #GOLD
4 #Bonds
5 #Dollar
6 $VIX pic.twitter.com/SLKr1aEUtW— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) October 1, 2020
A few price levels I'm watching in the S&P 500…
-The Sept. high VWAP.
– The gap created on Sept. 17th
– The 50-day Moving Average pic.twitter.com/Rr5fgrVsPt— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) October 1, 2020
Nasdaq 100 with 3 closes in a row over 21 ema and RSI 50… this is looking anything BUT bearish $SPY $QQQ $NQ_F pic.twitter.com/ZMpGMZtuiN
— Rolando Santos ? (@TKPTrader) October 1, 2020
Are software stocks ready to outperform the market again? pic.twitter.com/EhFeCqWCD2
— R. Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) October 1, 2020
Breakouts are bearish, right? #sarcasm $XRT pic.twitter.com/U6bMNRzZLa
— Michael Kahn, CMT (@mnkahn) October 1, 2020
Given that Chinese stocks are a whopping 41% of $EEM, I think the trend that emerges from this consolidation will have big implications for EM stocks as a whole. $ASHR pic.twitter.com/7rlwUZnjTH
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) October 1, 2020
Copper. Ugly day. pic.twitter.com/n5m5qiAcHd
— PivotAnalytics (@pivotanalytics) October 1, 2020
Copper continues to struggle with this 3.00 level.
For me what's noteworthy is commercial hedgers with a massive net short position.
They've been wrong before, but this along with the other intermarket stuff we're seeing suggests at least more choppiness near-term. pic.twitter.com/Fmro2MLm9B
— Tom Bruni, CMT (@BruniCharting) October 1, 2020
Copper: When China is on holiday…. pic.twitter.com/LzRZJABMKX
— Linda Raschke (@LindaRaschke) October 1, 2020