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Today’s Summary
Friday, September 30th, 2022
Indices: Russell 2000 -0.61% | S&P 500 -1.51% | Dow -1.71% | Nasdaq 100 -1.73%
Sectors: Real Estate was the only sector that closed higher, gaining +1.07%. Consumer Discretionary lagged, falling -1.97%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -2.14% to $79.49 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.20% to $1,672 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index gained +0.36%.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -0.71% to $19,452. Ethereum fell -0.78% to $1,326.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.833%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Just about 3,600 for the 200-week MA on $SPX $SPY.
Whether it's another successful test like 2011 / 2018 or a big fail like 2001 / 2008, I expect a good amount of sideways chop between now and year-end.
But as always… ¯_(ツ)_/¯ pic.twitter.com/ibORY9pg9V
— Matt ?, CMT (@topstockcharts) September 30, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Matt Fox (@topstockcharts). It’s a weekly candlestick chart of the S&P 500 over the past two decades. The S&P 500 just logged its third straight quarterly loss for the first time since 2008. Matt points out that it’s currently testing its 200-week moving average for the first time since the pandemic. We actually closed slightly below it today, so buyers will need to show up soon if we’re going to have a 2011 or 2018 scenario. If we extend below it, it will be a major red flag. Either way, keep an eye on how this test plays out in the coming weeks.
Quote of the Day
“Today is the first day of the rest of your life.”
– Charles Dederich
Trendlines > Headlines
Check out the latest episode of Trendlines over Headlines!
In this week’s episode, Jeffery Hirsch, Editor of the Stock Traders Almanac joins us to discuss October Seasonality, the 4-Year Presidential Cycle, and more!
Top Links
Understanding Bear Markets and Setting Expectations – StockCharts.com
Arthur Hill points out that the S&P 500 often continues lower after hitting the -20% threshold.
Will Stocks Crash in October? Or Will October Be a Bear Killer Once Again? – Carson Group
Ryan Detrick takes a look at how stocks have historically fared in October.
Will Commodities Hold? – All Star Charts
Ian Culley examines the outlook for Commodities.
NYSE Composite Highlights Painful Bear Market for Investors! – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble explains why the NYSE could fall another -10% from here.
Top Tweets
I'll be honest with you — this was not a strong close. pic.twitter.com/iwS4CHUocq
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) September 30, 2022
Dow leading the way lower, resolving from a bear flag beneath the June lows $DIA pic.twitter.com/t30ENApWGA
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) September 30, 2022
This is now the longest S&P 500 correction (peak to trough) since the March 2009 low at 269 days and counting. $SPX pic.twitter.com/AbqmCE3H54
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 30, 2022
The last time we had a 3 consecutive quarter decline on $SPX (Q4 '07-Q2 '08), it eventually turned into a 6-straight quarter drop. Before that (Q2 '00-Q4'00), it turned into a 9 quarter drop out of 12 pic.twitter.com/bntlJ8hb7y
— David Settle, CMT (@davidsettle42) September 30, 2022
#ES_F, quarterly
2008 vs 2022
Fascinating how closely the SPX 2022 price is following its 2008 analog. pic.twitter.com/Eo4e8mkYwM
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) September 30, 2022
3 consecutive quarters of declines for both S&P 500 (blue) and Bloomberg Agg Bond Index (orange), a streak that has never happened going back to 1976 (earliest available for latter index)
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/jxEGt0wlLh— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 30, 2022
60/40 portfolio is down 20.6% YTD.
Only 2008 was a worse year for investors. That's the bad news.
The good news is there is still time and the best 3 months for stocks during a midterm year are coming up. pic.twitter.com/BXLk9xtZkL
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) September 30, 2022
Bonds are so bad…
"How bad are they???"
Bonds are so bad that Gold is making new 10-year relative highs against them…. pic.twitter.com/Nojy8pQE2I
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) September 30, 2022
At least the British Pound was up this week pic.twitter.com/3LcuRJOzMN
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) September 30, 2022
Have a good weekend…$ES_F pic.twitter.com/VPrcJzZ2xn
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT? (@FusionptCapital) September 30, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!