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Today’s Summary
Thursday, September 30th, 2021
Indices: US Stocks closed lower in today’s session, with the Dow falling 547 points or 1.59%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.19% and 0.44%, respectively. The Russell 2000 closed lower by 0.94%.
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower. Communications led but still slipped 0.31%. Industrials lagged, dropping 2.05%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose 0.27% to $75.03 per barrel. Gold futures rebounded 1.98% to $1,757 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index slipped 0.12%.
Interest Rates: The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 1.489%
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Get ready to hear about some spectacular crashes during the month of October.
This month is simply misunderstood.
The past 10 and 20 years this is the 4th best month of the year for the S&P 500.
Since 1950 it ranks 7th and during a post-election year 5th. pic.twitter.com/uWWenrUaNA
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) September 30, 2021
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick). September is in the books! The S&P 500 ended a 7-month winning streak falling 4.76%, marking the worst month since last September. For my fellow seasonality junkies out there, September’s weakness should come as no surprise given its notorious reputation as the worst month for the S&P 500. As we turn the calendar, October doesn’t have a great reputation either due to the fact that several major crashes have occurred during this month (1929, 1987, 2008). However, Ryan reminds us that October hasn’t been that bad in recent decades. In a note from LPL Financial Research, he explained “October clearly isn’t one of the best months of the year, but by no means is it the worst either.” However, it is one of the most volatile months, he added, “No month has seen more 1% moves (up or down) than October, with some of the largest 1-day moves (both up and down) taking place this month.” For more on this, check out the full note here.
Quote of the Day
“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.”
– Mark Twain
Top Links
Could There Be an October Crash? – LPL Financial Research
The team at LPL Financial Research lays out everything there is to know about October seasonality.
Are Rising Interest Rates Bad for Tech Stocks? – A Wealth of Common Sense
Ben Carlson examines the relationship between interest rates and Growth/Tech stocks.
Small Caps are the Most Improved Player in the Breadth Game – Potomac Fund Management
Dan Russo shares his weekly breadth analysis.
Go Big or Go Home: Katie Stockton’s Best Ideas for Q4 – CNBC
In this clip, Katie Stockton offers some of her favorite stock picks for Q4 including, $CAG, $DISH, $MA, and $OXY.
Bearish Sentiment Back Above 40% – Bespoke
Bespoke breaks down the results of the latest sentiment surveys.
Top Tweets
And the monthly winning streak ends at 7.
Oh the horror. $spx
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) September 30, 2021
The SPX's +0.234% gain in Q3, 2021…
…was the smallest absolute % move since -0.231% (Q2, 2015)…
…and the smallest % advance since +0.18% (Q1, 2007).
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) September 30, 2021
Potentially worrisome signals from Q3:
– China tech $HXC -31% vs. NDX +.93%
– RTY -4.6% & worst since March 2020
– SOX -2.6% for first down Q in six
– NZDJPY -1%
– $VIX higher lows and higher highs on QSome real Q4 volatility may be ahead!
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) September 30, 2021
Ending the Streak. The S&P 500 closed 5% below its most recent high today, ending the second longest streak (230 trading days) without a 5% pullback over the last 20 years. pic.twitter.com/KDlROYALT4
— Larry Adam (@LarryAdamRJ) September 30, 2021
Look what you did u scoundrelshttps://t.co/VzH063paNh pic.twitter.com/4HCMaa81bt
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) September 30, 2021
S&P 500 is about to be up 6 quarters in a row.
The next quarter has been lower only once.
Incredibly, two quarters later stocks have never been lower.
A yr later? Up 15.5% on average.
Yet another clue we are in a secular bull market and the surprises will be to the upside. pic.twitter.com/Qom3QtlDcS
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) September 30, 2021
Wait a minute. Stonks "crushed" so $VIX and $VXX must have blasted higher. Um, no. pic.twitter.com/m9CtkKEYrE
— Jim Carroll (@vixologist) September 30, 2021
Still more air to come out of the $QQQ's … flows have started to retreat, but are a long way from being flushed. #Yields driving this call… @StrategasRP pic.twitter.com/rrT8xZrc8n
— Chris Verrone (@verrone_chris) September 30, 2021
Energy remains the most important sector to watch.
Updating this critical chart:
Energy consolidated several months, and is rallying sharply again – identical to past advances.
If history repeats, the *BIG* rally may just be getting started – follow the Trend. pic.twitter.com/3Q1Z3dbSqo
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) September 30, 2021
Still unresolved… pic.twitter.com/gupTY7aZlR
— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) September 30, 2021
8-month anniversary for the chopfest in stocks $IWM ? pic.twitter.com/Syfs5jFpjq
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) September 30, 2021
Small Cap Value ($VBR) relative to Large Cap Growth ($VV) and 10yr Yield pic.twitter.com/lhpyo4Dbfe
— Bob Sheehan, CMT, CFA (@LighthouseCap23) September 30, 2021
Highest Monthly Close for Crude Oil since 2014 $CL_F pic.twitter.com/49OeV3vFB8
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) September 30, 2021
Potential double bottom in gold with a bullish momentum divergence, similar to the setup in March. $GLD $GC_F pic.twitter.com/mBUljTmmSF
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) September 30, 2021
Silver up 3% today, finding support in a natural spot pic.twitter.com/bmh9pRolm1
— David Rath (@DJwrath) September 30, 2021
Remember when Bed Bath & Beyond became a "meme" stock back in January?
It's now 70% lower and down on the year.$BBBY
Charting via @ycharts pic.twitter.com/jDaqapc5Px
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 30, 2021
Look at the percent gain needed to get back to breakeven when you get the urge to hang on to that losing position…$SPY $DIA $QQQ $IWM $STUDY pic.twitter.com/4nHhXazBWI
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) September 30, 2021
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!