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Today’s Summary
Friday, September 22, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq +0.05% | S&P 500 -0.23% | Russell 2000 -0.30% | Dow -0.31%
Sectors: 2 of the 11 sectors closed lower. Technology led, gaining +0.21%. Consumer Discretionary lagged, falling -0.98%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +0.45% to $90.03 per barrel. Gold futures gained +0.31% to $1,946 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.19% to $105.58, and closed higher for the 10th straight week.
Crypto: Bitcoin was flat at $26,581. Ethereum rose +0.59% to $1,593.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.436%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Micro-caps ($IWC): lowest weekly close since Q4 2020.
Bull market behavior? I don't think so. pic.twitter.com/jpA93qTK69
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) September 22, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Willie Delwiche (@WillieDelwiche). Micro Caps ($IWC) remain in a bear market, down -36.5% from the March 2021 peak. Willie points out that $IWC just booked its lowest weekly close in nearly three years. It hasn’t made new lows on a daily closing basis yet, but it’s getting awfully close. It’s currently testing a major support level, around $100. Not only is this an important psychological level, but it also represents the pre-covid highs and has acted as support several times in the past year. Generally speaking, the more times a level is tested, the more likely it is to fail. If $IWC breaks down here, it would be a major red flag for the broader market.
Quote of the Day
“Do more than you are being paid to do, and you’ll eventually be paid more for what you do.”
–Zig Ziglar
Trendlines > Headlines
This week, we sat down with one of the most respected sell-side technicians, John Kolovos, of Macro Risk Advisors. We discuss the outlook for Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, and more!
Top Links
Assessing the Damage of the Latest Pullback – LPL Financial Research
Adam Turnquist looks at how the S&P 500 is holding up amid the recent volatility.
Low Volatility Streak Ends After 102 Days – What’s Next? – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch examines what has historically happened after the S&P 500 ends a streak of 100 days or more without a -1.5% decline.
King Dollar is Back – Grindstone Intelligence
Austin Harrison highlights the relentless rally in the US Dollar Index.
100, 99, 98, 97… – Bespoke
Bespoke looks at how the S&P 500 has historically performed in the final 100 trading days of a year.
Fill The Gap Episode Thirty-Two, with Ari Wald, CMT, CFA – CMT Association
In this podcast, David Lundgren and Tyler Wood sit down with Ari Wald, head of Technical Analysis at Oppenheimer & Co.
Top Tweets
$SPY 2nd worst week of the year.
Also: down less than 3% pic.twitter.com/0zHXyeaUXt
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) September 22, 2023
$SPY Over the last 15 years, next week is THE worst week for the S&P 500 in terms of win percentage and average return.
29% win rate and average return of -1.12% 🩸 pic.twitter.com/Uj07dEOtf1
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) September 22, 2023
Twitter is fun. We all know September is the worst month of the year for stocks – especially the second half. Then we follow that seasonal trend and everyone loses their minds. Could this be the start of a major crash? Of course. Could it also just be normal seasonality? Yes. pic.twitter.com/jcroa8WS3R
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) September 22, 2023
$SPX Seems like an important spot. pic.twitter.com/xkW9JiaIOg
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) September 22, 2023
Head and shoulders to in S&P 500 $SPX $SPY $ES_F
Some chart analysts are calling this a H&S
What do I think? Could be, but I am skeptical
Why?
Elevated and elongated right shoulder is questionable
Time will tell – as it always does pic.twitter.com/V8UJoQ0Q7z— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) September 22, 2023
This is the first 5% pullback in the S&P 500 since March (closing prices). Tis but a flesh wound with the index still up 13% on the year. $SPX pic.twitter.com/lTIYoZrcVN
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 22, 2023
Is this a buyable dip?
The S&P 500's peak-to-trough decline has reached 5% (4588 to 4330).
Going back to 1950, there have been 125 previous 5% pullbacks.
60% of the time, the market has moved on to new highs before going into a 10% drawdown.@3F_Research pic.twitter.com/LIcg2XtAJL
— Warren Pies (@WarrenPies) September 22, 2023
Since October: the S&P is up 21%, while the Russell is up just 5%.
In the past, small caps have beaten large by a wide margin in the first year of a bull.
I’m talking like an average of 28 percentage points.
Smalls’ breakdown could be the biggest threat to this bull pic.twitter.com/c8lrxRlHfw
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) September 22, 2023
how come bond futures can't get oversold? pic.twitter.com/8kZOsZ6XSr
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) September 22, 2023
$TLT traded 60M shares yesterday
that is the most volume since 3/6/20 when TLT traded 76M shares as covid reached a fever pitch
so was it a capitulation yesterday? time will tell, but I think big volume like that after a big move could be at least a short-term bottom (again,… pic.twitter.com/o6gOkXdmIb
— Christian Fromhertz 🇺🇸 (@cfromhertz) September 22, 2023
U.S. Dollar Index $DXY just had its 10th consecutive green week, its longest winning streak in 9 years! 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/nxDuFZC3S5
— Barchart (@Barchart) September 22, 2023
Watching Dollar Index futures $DX_F as they test the VWAP from their 2022 highs and the 38.2% retracement of their decline from that level. $UUP pic.twitter.com/jAbxY6lcDi
— Tom Bruni, CPA, CMT (@BruniCharting) September 22, 2023
oh, you were hoping that quarter pounder combo at $MCD was going to get cheaper?
guess again. pic.twitter.com/moeLgjspcE
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) September 22, 2023