Thursday, September 21, 2023
Indices: Dow -1.08% | Russell 2000 -1.56% | S&P 500 -1.64% | Nasdaq 100 -1.84%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower. Health Care led, but still fell -0.87%. Real Estate lagged, dropping -3.47%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures were flat (-0.03%) at $89.63 per barrel. Gold futures dropped -1.40% to $1,940 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index ticked lower by just -0.06% to $105.38.
Crypto: Bitcoin dropped -2.08% to $26,563. Ethereum dropped -2.37% to $1,584.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield gapped higher to 4.496% – its highest since 2007.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) September 21, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Steve Strazza (@sstrazza). US Treasury yields accelerated higher across the curve today, with the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year all closing at their highest in over a decade. Steve points out that the 10-year yield ($TNX) formed what’s known as a Breakaway Gap today. Breakaway Gaps occur when price gaps above resistance or below support. They symbolize a decisive resolution in the direction of the gap, and they’re often found in the early innings of a new trend. In this case, $TNX gapped above the October 2022 peak, completing an 11-month base. Momentum is confirming the breakout, with RSI reaching overbought (above 70) for the first time since March. Before today, $TNX had marginally broken out, but today’s pop adds conviction to the breakout.
Quote of the Day
“At all times, in all markets, in all parts of the world, the tiniest change in rates changes the value of every financial asset.”
– Warren Buffett
Breakdown – Trading Adventures
Andy Moss highlights some key takeaways from recent price action.
Sentiment Drops Ahead of the Fed – Bespoke
Bespoke breaks down the results of the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
ETFs & Markets with Todd Sohn – Strategas
Todd Sohn discusses the outlook for Stocks and Bonds.
US Benchmark Rate Hits 16-Year High – All Star Charts
Ian Culley outlines some key levels to watch on the US 10-year yield.
U.S. Dollar Double Top? Precious Metals Sure Hope So! – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble points out that the US Dollar Index ($DXY) is testing a potential inflection point.
Daily Mkt Mood: Risk-Off
S&P sub 4335/ last low says no floor, more selling likely as range maybe breaks.
Russell 2000 looks awful well below 200 DMA.
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) September 21, 2023
Well done guys!
SPX has finally had a 1.5% decline — ending a streak of not having this type of decline since 2018 pic.twitter.com/J05acyNtD5
— PetrTrades (@PetrTrades) September 21, 2023
If the S&P closes at these levels, it'll be in a 5% selloff.
We've seen about two of these a year since 1950.
This is normal. pic.twitter.com/NQiNxTZOQu
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) September 21, 2023
Thursdays are the worst days for a 1%+ down day when it comes to next-day performance. As shown, SPY declines of 1%+ on Thursdays (since 1993) have seen the next day average a decline of 0.04%. Every other weekday has averaged next-day gains. pic.twitter.com/sug09IS3kl
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) September 21, 2023
$SPY 63-day (quarterly) rate of change is now negative for the first time since May.
If this selloff continues, I'm looking at the confluence of the VWAP from its 2022 high and low converging about 5% below current levels. Also, several highs from earlier this year around ~415. pic.twitter.com/sKCeTY9ssN
— Tom Bruni, CPA, CMT (@BruniCharting) September 21, 2023
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) September 21, 2023
Personally I don't trust a head & shoulders top unless there was a steep rally leading into it. Regardless, welcome to the next leg down. The $RSP projects a target of the March lows, or -10% from yesterday's close. pic.twitter.com/ZsYabS774F
— Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA (@brettvillaume) September 21, 2023
— Jim Carroll (@vixologist) September 21, 2023
$TNX Mr. Stock Market sure didn't like the jump in the rates today. You better hope this is a false break, like in 'from false breaks, rapid moves come'. The stock charts look awful & there is another 4-6% to go down before decent support. October can be rough too. pic.twitter.com/PtcomlwN0b
— Alan Cohen (@al_xdpg) September 21, 2023
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) September 21, 2023
And speaking of gaps… pic.twitter.com/66f8kNHBKr
— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) September 21, 2023
One month later and she’s not looking so hot right now and ironically that’s when the picture often changes for the better.
Expect the price action to get tricky from here. pic.twitter.com/T85AK3GUci
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) September 21, 2023
…and that one right at the bottom of the pattern at the 200 WEEKS moving average! pic.twitter.com/JoTImOONMH
— conradseric, CMT, CAIA, CEFA (@conradseric) September 21, 2023
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) September 21, 2023