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Patrick Dunuwila

Post-Election Cycle Speed Bump ๐Ÿ“ˆ The Daily Chart Report

August 11, 2025

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Todayโ€™s Summary

Monday, August 11, 2025

 

Indices: Russell 2000 -0.09% | S&P 500 -0.25% | Nasdaq -0.36% | Dow -0.45%

Sectors: 3 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Communications led, gaining +0.51%. Energy lagged, falling -0.80%.

Commodities: Crude Oil inched higher by +0.13% to $63.96 per barrel. Gold dropped -2.48% to $3,405 per oz.

Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.25% to $98.51.

Crypto: Bitcoin is currently down -0.20% at $119,071. Ethereum is unchanged at $4,250.

Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +7.19% to 16.24.

Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury fell to 4.279%. 
 


Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
 


Chart of the Day 


๐Ÿ† Today's Chart of the Day comes from Ned Davis Research, shared by @AndrewThrasher.
 

  • The S&P 500 ($SPX) has alternated between positive and negative closes every day so far in August, yet it remains up +2% month-to-date.
 
  • Following a strong rally from April to August, history suggests that strength often fades in the back half of the month during post-election years.
 
  • This yearโ€™s trend (orange) has closely mirrored the average post-election year since 1928 (blue). Historically, the index peaks in mid-August before rebounding around Thanksgiving. However, if $SPX ignores this seasonal headwind, it would suggest a healthy underlying bid in the market.
     
The Takeaway: This yearโ€™s price action in the S&P 500 has tracked the average post-election year cycle reasonably well. The rally from April to August arrived right on cue, but the next three months could prove to be much more challenging than the last.



Quote of the Day


โ€œLiquidity is a coward,
it disappears at the first sign of trouble."

- Barton Biggs


Top Links
 

A View from the Floor with Jay Woods, CMT - Freedom Capital Markets
Jay Woods highlights a few key charts to watch in the week ahead.  

It's a Cap-Weighted World - The Strazza Letter
Steve Strazza examines market breadth as Mega-Caps begin to dominate again. 

We Could Have the Traditional October Drawdown this Year, Says Stephen Suttmeier - CNBC
Stephen Suttmeier shares his thoughts on the current market environment.

US Dollar at a Crossroads, Gold Primed for Action: Macro Moves to Watch - StockCharts
Mike Zaccardi examines the outlook for Gold and the US Dollar. 

BTC is a TIme Bomb - Alfonso's Daily Note
Alfonso De Pablos checks on Bitcoin ($BTC), Solana ($SOL), and crypto sentiment.


Top Tweets


 

You're all caught up now. Thanks for reading!

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