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Today’s Summary
Monday, August 8th, 2022
Indices: Russell 2000 +1.01% | Dow +0.09% | S&P 500 -0.12% | Nasdaq 100 -0.37%
Sectors: 7 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Real Estate led, gaining +0.73%. Tech lagged, falling -0.85%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +1.97% to $90.76 per barrel. Gold futures gained +0.78% to $1,805 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.19%.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +2.72% to $23,818. Ethereum gained +3.71% to $1,764.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.761%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Today's reversal coming right from Stan Weinstein's 30-week moving average. Important zone. $SPX $SPY $QQQ $IWM $VIX pic.twitter.com/IeGgMR0QA1
— Andrew Adams CFA, CMT (@DayTraderGator) August 8, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Andrew Adams (@DayTraderGator). The S&P 500 was up as much as 1% this morning, but it reversed lower and closed slightly negative. Andrew points out that today’s reversal occurred right at the 30-week moving average. Stan Weinstein was famous for using the 30-week moving average in his strategy, Stage Analysis. You can read more about Stage Analysis here, but it essentially categorizes the market into four distinct phases. When the market is below a downward sloping 30-week moving average like this, it’s considered to be in Stage 4, which is the most devastating of all four stages. As Andrew notes, caution is warranted as long as the S&P 500 is below its declining 30-week moving average.
Quote of the Day
“Take the oath that you are never going to buy another stock in Stage 4…or hold onto any of your stocks once they move into Stage 4.”
– Stan Weinstein
Top Links
SPY 420: Higher High or Burnout – Bespoke
Bespoke points out that 420 continues to be a major battleground for SPY.
Bear Market Rally? or New Up Trend – Andrew Thrasher
Andrew Thrasher takes a closer look at bear market rallies that retrace 50% of their decline.
Bounce or Bottom? – The Weekly Trend
In this podcast, Ian McMillan and Kevin Firari discuss some of the most noteworthy technical trends across the markets.
Peak Inflation? – Means to a Trend
Austin Harrison looks at commodities and inflation.
Trendlines Over Headlines with Special Guest, Ryan Detrick – The Chart Report
In case you missed it, catch up on the latest episode of Trendlines Over Headlines. In this week’s episode, Ryan Detrick of Carson Group joins us to talk Seasonality, the 4-Year Presidential Cycle, and more!
Top Tweets
Daily Market Mood: Sleepy
This even with a decent bearish reversal for the S&P and above average volume.
Barring any unexpected news, stocks probably tread water ahead of July CPI and PPI.
Given expectations for both to decline, bonds not so surprisingly rallied.
Stay cool!
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) August 8, 2022
$SPY volume is dead pic.twitter.com/PlKRBr3otR
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) August 8, 2022
S&P 500 seems to be stalling out at 4150, the same level we saw it peak at in early June. If you believe equities move to new lows in the coming weeks, it's a solid R/R scenario…$SPX $SPY $ES_F pic.twitter.com/AzIp30vLF6
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) August 8, 2022
If Fibonacci extensions are your thing, this is a pretty important level for the SPX pic.twitter.com/hrVfgStzfZ
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) August 8, 2022
This has worked well in the past. Is this time different? pic.twitter.com/whrbRsS4Hb
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) August 8, 2022
Market has been tracking the @NDR_Research cycle composite well so far this year. I can't imagine how many heads would explode if the second half rally continued through yearend and we finished the year with gains. pic.twitter.com/tzqjxXItTW
— Tony Welch, CFA, CFP®, CMT (@tonywelch17) August 8, 2022
One of the few market internals that actually looks bullish…
Small-caps making ST highs in both absolute & relative terms$IWM $RTY $SPX pic.twitter.com/HSJT5r1Mla
— Mike Singleton, CFA (@InvictusMacro) August 8, 2022
By our work, the single most important development in the market is the improving relative performance of small cap stocks to large cap stocks.
The ‘Pair Trade’ that makes sense, here and now, is to be long iShares Russell 2000 ETF $IWM and short SPDR S&P 500 ETF $SPY pic.twitter.com/9DTdfucIMg
— Carter Braxton Worth (@CarterBWorth) August 8, 2022
Growth factor is having its best quarter relative to value factor (both tracked by @Bloomberg) since 1Q2020
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/H1IoI5FHa6— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 8, 2022
I thought a lot about this chart while on vacation$SPYV vs $SPYG pic.twitter.com/tnkFTB0DCK
— David Zarling, CMT (@AdaptivCharts) August 8, 2022
Looks like meme stocks are back and so the meme ETF is up 23% in 10 days, best run of its existence. Here's the holdings. No $BBBY but it has the rest of the usual suspects… fee: 69bps pic.twitter.com/LFX7jnHxB0
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 8, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!