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Today’s Summary
Thursday, August 4th, 2022
Indices: Nasdaq 100 +0.44% | S&P 500 -0.08% | Russell 2000 -0.13% | Dow -0.26%
Sectors: 7 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Technology led, gaining +0.46%. Energy lagged by a wide margin, dropping -3.71%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -3.15% to a six-month low of $87.80 per barrel. Gold futures gained +1.77% to $1,808 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index dropped -0.58%.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -1.33% to $22,531. Ethereum dropped -1.51% to $1,595.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.690%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Crude slips below support at ~$94…$CL_F pic.twitter.com/lDFXEnbieV
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) August 4, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Ian McMillan (@the_chart_life). It’s a chart of Crude Oil futures over the past year and a half. Ian points out that Crude Oil is breaking below support around $94. It had flirted with this level several times since February, but we’ve decisively sliced through it this week. Energy remains the best performing sector by a mile (+31% YTD), but Crude Oil weakness will likely put pressure on those gains. Just a few weeks ago, headlines warned of $380 Oil, but at this point, $80 seems like a much more realistic target.
Quote of the Day
“The man who asks a question is a fool for a minute, the man who does not ask is a fool for life.”
– Confucius
Top Links
Bulls Battle Bears at June Highs Resistance – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch takes a look at recent price action in the S&P 500 and sentiment.
Bulls Back Above 30% – Bespoke
Bespoke breaks down the results of the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
Jerry Parker’s Market Outlook – TD Ameritrade Network
In this clip, legendary trend follower, Jerry Parker shares his thoughts on the current market environment.
August Strategy Session: 3 Key Takeaways – All Star Charts
The team at All Star Charts highlights three important trends to watch in the coming weeks.
Top Tweets
$SPY looks like one of the narrowest ranges of the year. Anemic volume too. pic.twitter.com/SV08AS7IyF
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) August 4, 2022
We've now seen 4 selloffs and 4 rallies in the S&P 500. With the last two selloffs taking the market down > 20%, it makes sense we got the largest rally so far. pic.twitter.com/A8UARQ9v5j
— Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA (@brettvillaume) August 4, 2022
QQQ's running into overhead resistance. This is an important potential inflection point. We are quite overbought. At the March top, QQQ was 6.5% above 50dma; Today we are at 9.7%. Yellow light! Looking to short tomorrow IF we take out today low. pic.twitter.com/d14G51stls
— Roy Mattox (@RoyLMattox) August 4, 2022
Most recent breadth surge brought 22.9% of S&P 500 members to new 3-month highs, quite close to 23.4% in late April … not consistent with spikes seen in mid- and late-2020, as well as mid-2021
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/dUZ9HyIOFK— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 4, 2022
Speculative positioning in S&P 500 futures–bets on where investors think the S&P 500 will go–turned bearish in Jun and got more bearish since. That's despite a big rally in Jul. Implies that many still think this is a bear market rally and we could dip back down. pic.twitter.com/PkNEIYOe0k
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) August 4, 2022
Sometimes it is important to remember that the second year of a new President isn't that strong historically.
Then it is even more important to remember that the following year can be quite strong. pic.twitter.com/W4CvSgKz2U
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) August 4, 2022
Financials not able to hold support on a relative basis pic.twitter.com/IbHvs1nlEU
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) August 4, 2022
~2.75 on the 10-year. That's the line in the sand. pic.twitter.com/ETNRqjadFa
— Pratty ★ (@PrattyCharts) August 4, 2022
$TLT $NDX $QQQ iShares 20+ Yr TSY ETF and the Nasdaq-100 have moved essentially the same this year, down almost exactly the same. Is it really just too simple to acknowledge that simple discounted cash flow math can explain so much more than macro or recession discussions? pic.twitter.com/dENLZnjcDS
— Jonathan Harrier, CMT (@jonathanharrier) August 4, 2022
Oil slid today & so did #Gasoline Futures #RB_F. #RBOB futures burned through support at 2.90, accelerating the downtrend.
(not a recommendation) pic.twitter.com/ipdKpfXGVt
— Pat Mullaly, CMT (@PMullaly_TDA) August 4, 2022
Big area here for gold. Back to the scene of the crime where it gave up support/$1800. #gold $GLD $GDX pic.twitter.com/PCosT4aXNN
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) August 4, 2022
Hard to feel good about this… $ETH $BTC pic.twitter.com/sOC4H2rxIr
— J4 (@J4_doji) August 4, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!