Monday, August 3rd, 2020
Indices: US stocks kicked off the week on a positive note with the Dow Jones Industrial Average advancing 236 points or 0.89%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.72% and 1.47%, respectively. Small-Caps outperformed with the Russell 2000 gaining 1.78%.
Sectors: Tech led for the third day in a row, gaining 2.46%. Real Estate lagged, falling 1.60%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures moved higher by 1.84% to $41.01 per barrel. Gold futures were flat, and continue to trade around $1,993 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index inched higher by 0.06%.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 0.554%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Tomorrow is officially 3 months before the election.
Remember, stocks have a stellar track record at predicting who might win in November.
If stocks are up, the incumbent party wins. If down? Incumbent party tends to lose.
Been right 87% of the time since the Great Depression. pic.twitter.com/B6qCux08ge
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) August 3, 2020
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Ryan Detrick of LPL Financial Research (@RyanDetrick). With three months until Election Day, Ryan points out that the stock market has a pretty solid track record at predicting the outcome of US Presidental Elections. When the S&P 500’s three-month performance has been positive heading into the election, the sitting President has historically been re-elected. On the other hand, when the three-month performance has been negative, the sitting President tends to get the boot. There have been three exceptions to this phenomenon in 1956, 1968, and 1980. But overall, the S&P 500’s three-month performance has correctly predicted 20 of the past 23 elections since 1928, for an impressive 87% success rate. It’s worked particularly well in recent decades, as it has been correct every single election since 1984. Will the S&P 500’s performance over the next three months once again predict the winner? For more on this phenomenon, check out this note from LPL Financial Research.
Quote of the Day
“Today is the first day of the rest of your life.”
– Charles Dederich
NASDAQ30 Notebook – Jotting on Charts
Grant Hawkridge shares his notes on the top 30 stocks in the Nasdaq.
Agricommodities Indicate Food Inflation – Sunsoft Analytics
Bhagyashree Urdhwareshe explains why she thinks Agricultural Commodities are poised to move higher.
Digital Dominance – Momentum Monday
In their weekly Momentum Monday video, Howard Lindzon and Ivanhoff highlight some of the strongest stocks, trends, and themes across the markets.
The Close Knows – The Weekly Trend
In this podcast, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss some of the major technical developments to be aware of right now.
Rare Earth Metals Break Out! – All Star Charts
JC Parets breaks down a chart of the Rare Earth Metals ETF, $REMX.
— Fred Imbert (@foimbert) August 3, 2020
— Sam McCallum (@honeystocks1) August 3, 2020
$SPX Market Trend remains positive on both LT and MT time frames. While stocks like $AAPL can certainly go down at some point, upswing invalidates bearish divergences in many charts and clears the way for further potential upside. $SPX 3400. pic.twitter.com/rXBHdf4Sot
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) August 3, 2020
The Nasdaq-100 $NDX rallied more than 1% as the Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index $VXN rose 5%+. It's the 38th time in the last 30 years and 7th since 2000. Sounds ominous, right?Historically next day up 25 of last 37 by ave 1.52% while 10-days later, up nearly 70% of time by ave 3.97% pic.twitter.com/fICVC0Klrw
— Michael McKerr (@MikeMcKerr_TDA) August 3, 2020
It's easy to understand why investors are buying stocks from a purely relative-value point of view. The latest chart from @TheOneDave: U.S. corporate bond yields are about the same as the average dividend yield paid by S&P stocks, the first time that's happened on record. pic.twitter.com/3jGxikJhNH
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 3, 2020
10-year yield (blue) vs S&P 500 yield (red) pic.twitter.com/MNTeKRYFfv
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) August 3, 2020
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) August 3, 2020
I received some hate e-mail from gold and silver bugs over the weekend due to my view that the highs are near. That could be bearish for metals. 😃 pic.twitter.com/36mff47D8Q
— DeCarleyTrading.com (@carleygarner) August 3, 2020
— Stocktwits (@Stocktwits) August 3, 2020
I wonder what folks think about the dollar right now? pic.twitter.com/c6soHqwl76
— 𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 (@pineconemacro) August 3, 2020