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Patrick Dunuwila

Quiet Streak Breaks Lower πŸ“ˆ The Daily Chart Report

August 1, 2025

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Today’s Summary

Friday, August 1, 2025

 

Indices: Dow -1.23% | S&P 500 -1.60% | Nasdaq 100 -1.85% | Russell 2000 -2.03%

Sectors: 3 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Health Care led, gaining +0.55%.  Consumer Discretionary lagged, dropping -2.41%.

Commodities: Crude Oil fell -2.79% to $67.33 per barrel. Gold moved higher by +1.53% to $3,400 per oz. 
 
Currencies: The US Dollar Index dropped -1.37% to $98.68.

Crypto: Bitcoin is currently down -2.37% at $113,610. Ethereum is down -6.68% at $3,450. 

Volatility: The Volatility Index spiked +21.90% to 20.37.

Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury fell to 4.216%.

 

Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
 


Chart of the Day 

$SPY


πŸ† Today's Chart of the Day was published in a recent note by Jeff Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader).
 

  • The S&P 500 dropped -1.6% on Friday, ending a 26-day streak without a 1% move in either direction. Jeff points out that how these low-volatility streaks end has historically set the tone in the near term.
 
  • Since 1950, there have been 175 low-volatility streaks lasting at least 18 consecutive days without a 1% move. The majority (62%) ended with a -1% decline, just like Friday.
 
  • When these streaks ended with a +1% gain, the next week was higher 91% of the time, by an average of +1.6%. However, when they ended with a -1% loss, the index struggled for another 1-4 weeks on average.
     
The Takeaway: The S&P 500 fell -1.6% today, ending a 26-day streak without a 1% move in either direction. Jeff notes that when these quiet stretches end with a -1% loss, like today, the near-term outlook has historically been much weaker than when they end with a gain.



Quote of the Day


β€œMore important than the will
to win is the will to prepare.”

- Charlie Munger


Top Links
 

Getting Cute - Thompson's Two Cents
Larry Thompson examines the aftermath of this week's decline in the S&P 500 ($SPY). 

Failed Breakout, Big Questions - Alfonso's Daily Note
Alfonso De Pablos highlights yesterday's crash in Copper prices and what it could mean for the broader market. 

Staples Break Down β€” Again 🧺 - The Daily Number
Grant Hawkridge looks at the relative weakness in Consumer Staples. 

Virtual Seasonality - The Weekly Trend Podcast
Ian McMillan and David Zarling discuss volatility, seasonality, and other notable themes across the market. 


Top Tweets

 

You're all caught up now. Thanks for reading!

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