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Today’s Summary
Monday, August 1st, 2022
Indices: Nasdaq 100 -0.06% | Russell 2000 -0.10% | Dow -0.14% | S&P 500 -0.28%
Sectors: 4 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Consumer Staples led, gaining +1.25%. Energy lagged, falling -2.07%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -4.80% to $93.89 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.33% to $1,788 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.40%.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -1.49% to $22,974. Ethereum dropped -4.04% to $1,612.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to a 3-month low of 2.577%
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Over the past decade July has been one of the best for stocks and that played out once again in 2022, with the S&P 500 up more than 9%.
But be aware that August (and September) tend to be weak months. pic.twitter.com/kzBSdefix3
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) July 31, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick). The S&P 500 gained 9.11% in July, marking the best month since November 2020, and the best July since 1939. To be fair, the index fell 8.39% in the prior month, so we’re essentially flat since Memorial Day. Ryan points out that, on average, August & September have historically been more challenging than July. Will the S&P 500 sustain its recent momentum and buck its seasonal pattern? Or, will history rhyme?
Quote of the Day
“A lot of people would rather understand the market than make money.”
– Ed Seykota
Top Links
Hot Julys Often Bring Late-Summer/Autumn Buys – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch points out that strong Julys for the Dow have historically been followed by weakness in late Summer/Fall.
Strongest July in Post WWII Era – Bepoke
Bespoke takes a look at how the S&P 500 has historically performed after some of its strongest Julys.
The Trends They Are A-Changin’ – Means to a Trend
Austin Harrison examines the recent improvement in breadth.
Historic Levels in Stock Market History – All Star Charts
JC Parets points out that Financials and Home Construction stocks held important levels last month.
Marajo Island – The Weekly Trend
In this podcast, David Zarling, and Ian McMillan highlight some of the most important technical developments going on across the markets.
Top Tweets
Last month was the fifth-best month for stocks in the last 30 years. (Note: That's the Wilshire 5K) pic.twitter.com/cBRLC9lJaT
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) August 1, 2022
$NDX now facing a key test having stalled today exactly at the Feb/March double bottom lows, 13,065. The rebound off the June lows gained 19%, similar to the 17% rebound in March. pic.twitter.com/NSsU8k9X5k
— brian.joyce.nasdaq (@Nasdaqbjoyce) August 1, 2022
Last week's breadth thrust decreases the odds of this continuing, but recent $SPX price action remains eerily consistent with 2007-09. pic.twitter.com/8LfH9e3eYq
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) August 1, 2022
Despite moving down on a prelim basis in Jul, people are still googling "market bottom" at a historically elevated rate. For context, search activity fell quickly during the bear markets of 2009 & 2020…and there was a head fake before the real bottom in 2009. pic.twitter.com/3vGQ9Cydvn
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) August 1, 2022
From last night's Thrasher Analytics letter….
Money Managers really hate Gold, holding one of their largest net-short positions. Prior instance saw sizable rallies in the metal. Gold currently is setting up a possible double bottom.$GC_F $GLD pic.twitter.com/LWOIQ3En0n
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) August 1, 2022
Long-term bonds have plenty of upside if June 2022 was a cyclical bottom. Big if, of course. pic.twitter.com/vUcllRwSlJ
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) August 1, 2022
The most interesting breadth thrust signal from last week that very few, if any, are discussing.
What do the bond guys know? pic.twitter.com/JUAALGMmuA
— Dean Christians, CMT (@DeanChristians) August 1, 2022
Worst month for Consumer Staples relative to Consumer Discretionary since January 2001
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/VMDf0FQECv— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 1, 2022
These two charts are going to resolve in the same direction$XLY/ $XLP just made the first move and is indicating that direction is higher
Will growth stocks follow? $ARKK pic.twitter.com/NfSWDITybF
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) August 1, 2022
$arkk is trash. can't even rally on real yields plunge. pic.twitter.com/s2gZR61r22
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) August 1, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!