Friday, July 30th, 2021
Indices: US Stocks closed lower in today’s session, with the Dow falling 149 points or 0.42%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved lower by 0.54% and 0.71%, respectively. The Russell 2000 finished lower by 0.62%.
Sectors: 4 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Materials led, gaining 0.41%. Consumer Discretionary lagged, dropping 2.06%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures inched higher by 0.26% to $73.81 per barrel. Gold futures dropped 1.03% to $1,817 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose 0.23%.
Interest Rates: The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 1.226%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
The S&P 500 will be up 6 months in a row.
Turns out, these rare streaks are quite bullish.
In fact, a year after a 6 month win streak the S&P 500 was higher 18 of 21 times with a very solid 11.9% average return. pic.twitter.com/YHa0bkypYY
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) July 30, 2021
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick). July is in the books! The S&P 500 closed higher for the sixth consecutive month, gaining about 2.40%. Ryan points out that further gains have historically followed. The next month was higher about 67% of the time for a small average gain of 0.50%. So, the odds of us extending the recent winning streak to 7-months are slightly better than a coin-toss. Looking further out, average gains get larger and more likely. As Ryan notes, one year later, the S&P 500 has historically been positive 86% of the time for an average gain of 11.9%. While this monthly winning streak may seem unsustainable, history shows us that further gains are entirely possible, and dare I say probable.
Quote of the Day
“I’ve always found that my most profitable judgments are made late at night or on weekends. This is no accident. It’s a time when you can calmly decipher the chart’s message.”
– Stan Weinstein
Small Dent in Elevated Equities – Bespoke
Bespoke compares several of the major international markets.
Taming Your Ego – Macro Ops
Here’s a great read on the importance of keeping an open mind in the markets.
Where Do We (Investors) Stand – David Cox
Portfolio manager, David Cox highlights some noteworthy technical developments from this past week.
Cattle Futures Price Pattern Warns Of Food Inflation – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble points out that Cattle futures are attempting to break out of a bullish pattern.
Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending July 30, 2021 – Brian Shannon
Brian Shannon recaps this week’s price action and highlights some key levels to watch next week.
Some cool August stats going back 20 years…
SPX – up 12 times, down 8.
Four of those up months = gain of 5 POINTS or less
Average return.. -2.05%
Best August.. 2020 up 7.24% (Covid rally)
Worst August.. 2011 down 6.14% (S&P downgrade US sovereign debt)
— Jay Woods (@JayWoods3) July 30, 2021
July closing at an ATH has brought us a red August far more often than not but I tweeted this last year too and the S&P 500 went on to rip 7% in August so there's that too.
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) July 30, 2021
— Michael Turvey (@MikeTurvey_TDA) July 30, 2021
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) July 30, 2021
SPX Post-Election year seasonal composite. pic.twitter.com/fwcT3BbTdf
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) July 30, 2021
July global market performance: pic.twitter.com/lMjan9jofI
— 💸 Mαrkets ∞ Mαyhem 💸 (@Mayhem4Markets) July 30, 2021
Nikkei off -11% and breaking support, Hang Seng off -17% and falling hard. But U.S. markets see no risk! 🤔 pic.twitter.com/gmmH5QXvzq
— James Brodie CMT (@jamesrbrodie) July 30, 2021
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) July 30, 2021
Bitcoin up 9 straight days. We've seen this before pic.twitter.com/Low95xjITh
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) July 30, 2021
The good news: $HOOD got its first MACD buy signal on the 5-minute chart.
The bad news: still very much underwater from IPO listing price $38.
The bottom line: not impressed < $38. pic.twitter.com/ku4LsrmpXV
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) July 30, 2021
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!