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Today’s Summary
Wednesday, June 30th, 2021
Indices: US Stocks were mixed in today’s session. The Dow rose 210 points or 0.61%. The S&P 500 inched higher by just 0.13%, while the Nasdaq inched lower by 0.17%. The Russell 2000 was more or less flat (0.07%).
Sectors: 6 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining 1.24%. Real Estate lagged, falling 0.78%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures moved higher by 0.67% to $73.47 per barrel. Gold futures rose 0.45% to $1,772 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index gained 0.31%.
Interest Rates: The 10-year US Treasury yield was unchanged and remains at 1.471%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
What a first 6 months, with the S&P 500 up 14.4% YTD.
The good news is a strong first 6 mos usually means a strong next 6 mos.
When the SPX is up >12.5% YTD at the end of June, the next 6 months are up a median of 9.7%.
That is nearly 2x the median final 6 months for all yrs. pic.twitter.com/lydNpuCCAe
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) June 30, 2021
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick). The first half of the year is in the books! It’s been a particularly strong first half, with very little downside volatility. The S&P 500 is up about 14.4% over the past 6-months, and we haven’t even had a pullback of 5% or more that entire time. Ryan points out that a strong first half for the S&P 500, is often followed by a strong second half. According to his data, when the S&P 500 is up 12.5% or more in the first half, the second half returns an impressive median gain of 9.7%. In a separate note, Ryan also pointed out that Q3 is historically the worst quarter of the year. However, Q4 is historically the best quarter of the year. If history rhymes, any potential weakness in Q3 could prove to be a buying opportunity by the end of the year.
Quote of the Day
“There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know.”
– Donald Rumsfeld
Top Links
4 Charts to Help You Get Ready For July and Beyond – LPL Financial Research
The team at LPL Financial Research shares some must-see stats to help you prepare for the second half of the year.
Stocks Only Going Up in the First Half – Bespoke
The S&P 500 has gone the entire first half of the year without a pullback of 5% or more, on a closing basis. In this note, Bespoke examines the 14 other years that this has happened.
Record Highs, But Not Much Froth – Potomac Fund Management
Dan Russo highlights some key takeaways from the current market environment.
Intermarket Update – AlphaCharts
Brian at AlphaCharts takes a look at some noteworthy trends on his radar.
2021 European Summit – CMT Association
The CMT Association is hosting a virtual European summit over the next two days. They’ve got a stellar lineup of esteemed technical analysts, so be sure to register for the event!
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Top Tweets
S&P 500 up 14.4% for 1st half of 2021
Last 2 times it started better – 1998, 2019
1998 – up 18% 1st half/up 27.5% on yr.
2nd half – a peak in July, Oct bottom, new high by Nov.2019 – up 18.8% first half/up 30% on yr.
2nd half – a peak in July, Aug low, new high by late Oct.— Jay Woods (@JayWoods3) June 30, 2021
S&P Breadth remains strong:
5-Day Breadth nearly hit 70% – among the Top 5% *strongest* since 2009.
Concern over Breadth is another example of Traders with "one foot out the door" all year.
Pullbacks can happen – but this is not how Bull Markets usually end.
Follow the Trend. pic.twitter.com/PVceqzSAO4
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) June 30, 2021
II bulls have been above 50% for 57 weeks in a row. pic.twitter.com/I87Vy6bFZb
— Willie Delwiche (@WillieDelwiche) June 30, 2021
Modest divergence here. pic.twitter.com/j6KNidfkcy
— Strategas (@StrategasRP) June 30, 2021
$XLY : $XLP break above bull flag, that is not bearish for the market or $XLY pic.twitter.com/GCAozX6bsR
— Bailey.Baxter2020 (@BBaxter2020) June 30, 2021
$XLK / $XLF monthly pic.twitter.com/q1Zo15sGtx
— RSL (@rsandbachlaw) June 30, 2021
Echoes of 2009-10, but: the run-up to today’s cycle transition shows a lot more dispersion and, so far, the correction in the more speculative parts of the market has been more pronounced (as one would expect). How we correct from here, if indeed we do, remains to be seen. pic.twitter.com/aNpowGFsrS
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) June 30, 2021
Commodities – Monthly#Monthlycharts #Commodities pic.twitter.com/KviuawKLL8
— Bhagyashree Urdhwareshe, CMT (@sunsofttech) June 30, 2021
$AAPL Apple – breaks to a new higher high. This is an important technical development. pic.twitter.com/4RXzz4DNJV
— Rob Moreno (@rightviewrob) June 30, 2021
Five days in a row. https://t.co/cI0njjEifQ
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) June 30, 2021
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!