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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, June 30th, 2020
Indices: US Stocks closed higher in today’s session, ending the best quarter in over 20 years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 217 points or 0.85%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 1.54% and 1.87%, respectively. The Russell 2000 advanced 1.42%.
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed higher for the second day in a row. Energy led, gaining 2.30%. Utilities lagged but still rose 0.37%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures slipped 0.91% to $39.27 per barrel. Gold futures moved higher by 1.08% to $1,801 – the highest daily close in over seven years.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index moved slightly lower by 0.09%.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 0.658%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared in a note by seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader). Jeff points out that the first trading day in July has been quite bullish for the major indices over the past 21-years. The S&P 500 has closed higher 85.7% of the time, for a median gain of 0.54%. Jeff adds, “No other day of the year exhibits this amount of across-the-board strength which makes a solid case for declaring the first trading day of July the most bullish day of the year over the past 21 years.” In a separate note last week, titled; “Christmas in July: NASDAQ’s Mid-Year Rally,” Jeff also pointed out that we’re in the midst of a seasonally bullish 12-day stretch for the Nasdaq. As we know, anything can happen, and the past doesn’t always repeat exactly. But keep these seasonality stats in mind as we kick off the new month and quarter tomorrow.
Quote of the Day
“We decided that systematic trading was best. Fundamental trading gave me ulcers.”
–Jim Simons (Founder of Renaissance Technologies)
Top Links
Technical Headwinds for Crude Oil – Andrew Thrasher
Here’s a good analysis of Crude Oil futures from Andrew Thrasher.
Midweek Stock Market Recap and Technical Analysis – The Trade Risk
In this video, Evan Medeiros reviews this week’s price action and highlights some charts to watch in the remainder of the week.
“Hodl” Off For Now – Bespoke
Bespoke examines the outlook for Bitcoin after an impressive 41.6% gain in Q2.
Gold/Dollar Ratio Sending Bullish Message to Gold Bugs – See it Market
Chris Kimble tells Gold bugs to focus on the Gold/Dollar ratio as it tests a key resistance level.
Tesla (TSLA) Is Driving Through Resistance – StockCharts.com
Tom Bowley explains why he thinks another double to $2,000 could be in store for the electric car maker, Tesla Inc. ($TSLA).
Top 10 Tweets
I’ll spare you the quarter-end takes (because I don’t have any that haven’t already been said ?), and toss you a summer stat.
The last 8 times the S&P 500 has closed up in June (like it did this month), $SPX was higher at the end of September (average return of +5.3%)
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) June 30, 2020
Looking like the best quarter for the S&P 500 since 1998.
Here's the catch, future returns after huge quarters (>15%) tend to see continued strength.
Higher the next quarter 8 for 8. pic.twitter.com/CgnEmd8PQX
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) June 30, 2020
Great chart from @JC_OHara_, Chief Market Technician at MKM Partners, interviewed at Bloomberg:
"Currently, the Put/Call Ratio for the $NDX top 5 weighted names (40% of the index) is telling us that the market is extremely greedy – everybody is on the same side of the trade." pic.twitter.com/Dh8K0jeBqU
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) June 30, 2020
beautiful $SPY levels to trade against pic.twitter.com/QlyAUIA7B7
— BostonCharts (@bostonchaahhts) June 30, 2020
The Ol Jerry Maguire pattern for the SPX, Breakthrough?? or Breakdown?? pic.twitter.com/y00iSjFJON
— Dan Nathan (@RiskReversal) June 30, 2020
Gold's breaking through $1,800.
This could be a big moment. pic.twitter.com/izHmdk0HjY— Ed van der Walt (@EdVanDerWalt) June 30, 2020
$SLV ? pic.twitter.com/uSq1ubNBnj
— imaginarydragons (@maginarydragons) June 30, 2020
Gold vs. Silver Ratio — Silver to Outperform?
** Rejected Upper Boundary of Parallel Channel ** pic.twitter.com/TRO7HJAK4T
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) June 30, 2020
Copper is heading into July (which is typically its best month of the year) with a head of steam, having risen 12% over the past month. pic.twitter.com/HSJhdF8VN3
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) June 30, 2020
The $TSLA bears need to get out of the cross-walk. pic.twitter.com/4Iyusb66sN
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) June 30, 2020