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Today’s Summary
Thursday, April 16th, 2020
Indices: US Stocks were mostly higher in today’s session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average inching up 33 points or 0.14%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.58% and 1.66%, respectively. The Russell 2000 weakest of the major indices, falling 0.50%.
Sectors: Healthcare led for the second day in a row, gaining 2.18%. Energy lagged for the third day in a row, dropping 4.27%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell 0.60% to $19.75 per barrel. Gold futures slipped 0.37% to $1,734 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose 0.37%.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield inched higher to 0.643%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$OEX (mega-caps) making a new high vs $SML (small-caps) today. Not what you typically see if stocks have made a sustainable low and are looking forward to better (or at least less bad) economic conditions. pic.twitter.com/tvvvKWFX8Z
— Willie Delwiche (@WillieDelwiche) April 16, 2020
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Willie Delwiche (@WillieDelwiche). It’s a ratio chart of Mega-Cap stocks ($OEX), relative to Small-Cap stocks ($SML). When the line is rising, it indicates that Mega-Cap stocks are outperforming Small-Cap stocks, and vice versa. As Willie points out, this ratio reached a new high today. In other words, Small-Cap stocks are underperforming Mega-Cap stocks by the widest margin in decades. Small-Cap stocks tend to be risker and more aggressive than their Larger-Cap peers. Because of this, their relative performance is a good indicator of risk-appetite among market participants. New highs from this ratio do not favor the bull case for stocks right now. If anything, this is further evidence that stocks remain in a risk-off environment despite the sharp rebound in the broader market over the past few weeks.
Quote of the Day
“It’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see.“
– Henry David Thoreau (Writer)
Top Links
Where We Are In The Typical Sentiment Cycle – SentimenTrader
Jason Goepfert overlays the S&P 500 with a chart of the typical Sentiment Cycle and explains that we’re most likely in the post-panic/discouragement stage of the cycle.
Turning Bearish on Gold – Andrew Thrasher
Andrew Thrasher lays out the bear case for gold.
No Crisis For WMT as It Pushes to New Highs – StockCharts.com
Julius de Kempenaer explains why Walmart inc. ($WMT) could continue to do well on both an absolute and relative basis.
Podcast with Adam Koos, Founder of Libertas Wealth Management Group – Technical Analysis Radio
In this podcast, JC Parets interviews portfolio manager, Adam Koos. They discuss how Adam uses technical analysis to manage risk for his clients.
“FUGLY” Outlook for the Dow? Not Until This is Taken Out!!! – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble takes a look at a long-term chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and points out that the index is currently testing a confluence of two key support levels.
Top 10 Tweets
The S&P 500 closed up more than 0.5%.
And yet more than 70% of volume on the NYSE flowed into declining securities (thanks, GE).
That's only happened twice before in 58 years (in November 2007 and October 2008).
— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) April 16, 2020
Breadth: equal-weight vs market cap weight $SPX. Relatively fewer/larger companies have driven this rally so far (lower panel) pic.twitter.com/5324ninTBW
— ukarlewitz (@ukarlewitz) April 15, 2020
? $SPY pic.twitter.com/Kw2iBmOuL9
— Todd Harrison (@todd_harrison) April 16, 2020
If you want to short small-caps with us raise your hand ?♂️https://t.co/UcNHuLfCEH $IWM $SPY pic.twitter.com/DMLe19RBaP
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) April 16, 2020
quite the difference in FAANG performance $FB$AAPL$AMZN$NFLX$GOOGL pic.twitter.com/EOITyCpWRT
— BostonCharts (@bostonchaahhts) April 16, 2020
Is the $VIX down over 40 points from its peak last month? Yes.
Is it still *way* above the long-term average? Yes.
Is it now, even after coming down about 50%, still at the extreme levels usually seen in market selloffs? Yep. pic.twitter.com/iPaLYzO9ca— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) April 16, 2020
The S&P 500 has posted its worst returns vs Treasuries since the 1980s, according to a measure highlighted by @theonedave via @theterminal, citing this report: https://t.co/v4IxFzeKyq Rather than being a clear buy signal, the ratio hints at no obvious bottom forming yet: Invesco pic.twitter.com/PKXU4PZwiZ
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) April 15, 2020
$TLT consolidating at resistance #bonds #rates $TNX pic.twitter.com/cnUO6bPOtA
— Drew Wells, CMT®, CIMA® (@DrewTheCharts) April 16, 2020
Timber & Forestry stocks reaching new relative lows. pic.twitter.com/rplqv279LW
— Adaptiv (@adaptiv) April 16, 2020
What’s more telling so far this week?$XLV Healthcare: +4% this wk, after last wk’s +9% gain… and now +34% from its lows.
OR$KRE Regional Banks: Currently -16% this wk, wasting last wk’s +26% face ripper and now -4% for the month.
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) April 16, 2020