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Today’s Summary
Friday, March 31st, 2023
Indices: Russell 2000 +1.93% | Nasdaq 100 +1.68% | S&P 500 +1.44% | Dow +1.26%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed higher. Consumer Discretionary led, gaining +2.67%. Energy lagged but still rose +0.69%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +1.75% to $75.67 per barrel. Gold futures fell -0.58% to $1,986 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.41% to $102.59.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +1.78% $28,5400. Ethereum gained +1.77% to $1,826.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.471%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
April is the second best month on average for stocks since 1950 (November is better).
Up 17 of the past 18 times in a pre-election year.
And the best month the past 20 years.
Of course, it was down 8.8% last year, so no, this isn't perfect. Still, worth knowing. pic.twitter.com/m8qw7DA102
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 31, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick).Today was a special day for the S&P 500 as it closed out the day (+1.44%), the week (+3.48%), the month (+3.51%) and the quarter (+7.03%) with gains across all time frames. As we turn the calendar, Ryan points out that April has historically been a strong month for the S&P 500. It’s been the best month over the past 20-years, and the second best month since 1950. He adds that April has rarely ended lower in pre-election years like 2023. In pre-election years, the S&P 500 has ended April higher 17 out of 18 times (94% of the time) for an average gain of +3.5%. Seasonality is just one of many data points to consider, but April has historically been kind to the bulls. For more on April seasonality, check out this note from Ryan.
Quote of the Day
“History does not repeat itself exactly, but behavior does.”
– Bob Farrell
Trendlines > Headlines
Check out the latest episode of Trendlines over Headlines!
This week, Matthew Tuttle, Founder & CEO of Tuttle Capital Management joins us to discuss two of his firm’s controversial ETFs – The Inverse ARKK ETF ($SARK) and the Inverse Jim Cramer ETF ($SJIM).
Top Links
Can the Spring Melt Up Continue? – LPL Financial Research
Adam Turnquist examines April seasonality.
Stocks Stopped Going Down – All Star Charts
JC Parets shares his outlook on the S&P 500.
DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April – Almanac Trader
Seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch takes a look at how the major averages have historically performed on the first trading day of April.
When You See Amazon Turning Around Beautiful Things Start To Happen – StockCharts
Julius de Kempenaer highlights the recent rotation into the Consumer Discretionary sector.
Market Strategy Weekly – March 31, 2023 – Baird
In this video, Todd Sohn of Strategas Research highlights some of the most noteworthy technical developments.
Top Tweets
Best quarter-end day gain for the S&P 500 since Q2 2020.
Not something I expected to tweet at this time three weeks ago.
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) March 31, 2023
Presenting your Q1 2023 heatmap. $SPY
What stands out the most to you? 👇 pic.twitter.com/X8JMCaKGCi
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) March 31, 2023
Here are the previous 23 times the S&P 500 gained >5% two quarters in a row.
Higher 20 times and up 13.5% on average a year later.
Look at those dates, they didn't happen right before a new bear market took over is my big takeaway. pic.twitter.com/8k1wSJOYoJ
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 31, 2023
Nasdaq 100 up 19.7% for the quarter is not even strong enough to crack the top ten. pic.twitter.com/Kk2Q1Qg3Wg
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) March 31, 2023
Since the start of Q4 2022:
International stocks +28% (remember when Europe was everyone's biggest worry for a recession?)
Nasdaq 100 +19%
S&P 500 +15% pic.twitter.com/IenD26oYlA
— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) March 31, 2023
Yo, Charts – Updated / better version here pic.twitter.com/JbXd21SFrI
— da Chart Life (@daChartLife) March 31, 2023
Big spot for the Nasdaq on a long term, relative basis to the S&P 500. Nice big monthly candle, but it brings us back to the August 2022 highs of the relationship…$QQQ $SPX pic.twitter.com/j1hcSkfx8I
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) March 31, 2023
We might actually be one trading session away from having an actual breadth thrust on the McClellan Oscillator that we haven't had since the COVID bounce. It's getting real this time 🤔 $SPX pic.twitter.com/FWHOxEMCRF
— David Settle, CMT (@davidsettle42) March 31, 2023
$XLF – Crazy window dressing week, people making sure they have exposure to financials before quarter end.
*winkyface pic.twitter.com/UnoZzIANiv
— Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts) March 31, 2023
New all-time quarterly closing high for Gold pic.twitter.com/0aLHgDbc7y
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) March 31, 2023
#vix $vix VIX "mirrored" Rorschach — extended period of lower volatility echoing 2004-2007? pic.twitter.com/8yVtHKo7C5
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) March 31, 2023
What a crazy Q1 … pic.twitter.com/y5V8FXxSCC
— StockMKTNewz – Evan (@StockMKTNewz) March 31, 2023