Tuesday, March 31st, 2020
Indices: US Stocks closed lower in today’s session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 410 points or 1.84%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved lower by 1.60% and 0.95%, respectively. The Russell 2000 was the strongest of the major indices but still slipped 0.45%.
Sectors: 10 out of the 11 sectors closed lower. Energy was the only sector to close higher, gaining 1.54%. Utilities lagged, dropping 4.04%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures moved lower by 0.89% to $20.10 per barrel. Gold futures tumbled 3.18% to $1,591 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index slipped 0.09%.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 0.698%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) March 31, 2020
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by David Keller (@DKellerCMT). It’s a chart of the S&P 500 over the past 20-years, highlighting the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator. Named after the legendary trader, Marty Zweig, this indicator essentially looks for instances where breadth goes from extremely negative to positive within a relatively short amount of time (two weeks or less). It’s calculated using a 10-day moving average of the number of advancing stocks on the NYSE, divided by the total number of stocks on the NYSE. A signal occurs when that 10-day exponential moving average goes from being below .40 to being above .61. As David points out, there have only been six of these signals in the past 20-years, but we could be headed for lucky number seven in the next few days. After each of those six signals, the market was higher 6-12 months later 100% of the time. To be fair, it was a bit early at calling the bottom in 2004, and 2015. However, it’s still a pretty robust signal. For more on this indicator, check out this video from David.
Quote of the Day
“If this is a bull market, it’s the only one in history that’s occurred with the majority of stocks in the US and around the world in downtrends.”
– Tom Bruni (Technical Analyst)
Ask the Technicians: Is This a New Bull Market – The Big Picture
The rebound in stocks over the past week has many claiming a new bull market has begun. Here’s a must-read from Barry Ritholtz, in which he explains why it would be wrong to label this a new bull market.
Examining Bear Market Bounces – LPL Financial Research
In this note, the team at LPL Financial research takes a look at past bear market rallies.
Was That the Bottom? – Of Dollars and Data
Data scientist, Nick Maggiulli shares his thoughts on false rallies and the disconnect between the stock market and the economy.
Defensive Groups Lead the Bounce – All Star Charts
JC Parets points to all the signs that this rally is a classic dead cat bounce.
“Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes” with Author Brian Shannon – SteadyTrade Podcast
Here’s a great podcast with Brian Shannon. He discusses his journey as a trader and what attracted him to Technical Analysis.
Top 10 Tweets
— Jared Blikre (@SPYJared) March 31, 2020
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) March 31, 2020
We talk about 10/28/2019 a lot. Why? It was a very important day from a behavioral perspective. In our opinion, it signaled a change into a risk-on environment. Thus, we want to see buyers be willing to pay those same prices for stocks again.
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) March 31, 2020
Well, that’s better: At yesterday’s close of 2626, the #SP500 had gained exactly 20% from last Monday’s low of 2192. No, that doesn’t make this a new #bullmarket. Not yet, anyway. #COVID19 #SPX pic.twitter.com/Hcz2wa8PvJ
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) March 31, 2020
Everyone dumped Stocks in March – *except* smart money Corporate Insiders.
Insiders went on the 2nd largest buying spree in two decades – bigger than March'09, Aug'11 and Dec'18.
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) March 31, 2020
— 🔴 I. Vodenitcharov CFA CMT (@iv_technicals) March 31, 2020
The weak continue to get weaker. pic.twitter.com/RqONGtvRYW
— Strategas (@StrategasRP) March 31, 2020
— Tarek I. Saab (@FibLines) March 31, 2020
Crude forming three pushes down on Daily chart pic.twitter.com/0Oro0sPJrV
— Linda Raschke (@LindaRaschke) March 31, 2020
US 2 Year Treasury Yield reminds us of the Paul Simon song – Slip Sliding Away
Slip slidin' away, Slip slidin' away
You know the nearer your destination, The more you're slip slidin' away pic.twitter.com/uiWi1KVkWH
— Wolfe Daily Howl (@WolfeDailyHowl) March 31, 2020