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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, March 30th, 2021
Indices: US Stocks closed slightly lower in today’s session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipping 104 points or 0.31%. The S&P 500 fell 0.32%, while the Nasdaq was more or less flat (0.11%). The Russell 2000 outperformed, rising 1.72%.
Sectors: 3 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Consumer Discretionary led, gaining 0.98%. Consumer Staples lagged, falling 1.07%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell 1.64% to $60.55 per barrel. Gold futures dropped 1.53% to $1,686 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index continued higher by 0.38%.
Interest Rates: The 10-year US Treasury yield moved slightly lower to 1.705%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
As @RyanDetrick pointed out, credit markets have yet to signal any type of impending weakness for equities. This is good news for investors, due to the fact that HY spreads turning up is typically seen as a leading indicator for said volatility. pic.twitter.com/O3An6ZCgwd
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) March 30, 2021
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Ian McMillan (@the_chart_life). Last week, a multibillion-dollar fund was forced to liquidate its over-leveraged portfolio, causing a sharp sell-off in a handful of stocks. Some seem concerned that this blow-up could pose a systemic risk to the broader market, similar to what happened with Long-Term Captial Management in ’98. However, if this truly was a systemic risk, we likely would’ve seen the credit markets react by now, and we’re not. The chart shows the CCC high-yield bond spread in blue, along with the S&P 500 in purple. As Ian points out, this high yield spread often turns higher before any major volatility in stocks. But for now, it continues to trend lower, giving stocks the green-light?
Quote of the Day
“The past can hurt. But the way I see it, you can either run from it, or learn from it.”
– Rafiki
Top Links
Will See A Period Of Underperformance In Big Tech Names, Says Renaissance Macro’s deGraaf -CNBC
Jeff deGraaf of Renaissance Macro explains why he thinks Mega-Cap Tech stocks will underperform.
Gold Miners Bear Market Accelerates If This Happens! – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble points out that Gold Miners are on life support.
First Trading Day of April: DJIA and S&P 500 Higher 69.2% of the Time – Almanac Trader
Seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch takes a look at how stocks have historically performed on the first trading day in April.
The Deal That Broke The Bank, Connect The Dots – The Bear Traps Report
Larry McDonald weighs-in on the Archegos fiasco.
Best Technical Analysis Courses – Investopedia
If you’re looking to learn more about technical analysis, here’s a list of courses recommended by Investopedia.
Top Tweets
The S&P 500 is presently higher by 53.16% the last twelve months (Mar 20 monthly close to Mar 21 monthly close).
The record is from June 1982 through June 1983's gain of 52.94%.
Some history on the line tomorrow. $spx
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) March 30, 2021
The highest reading in the percentage of stocks above their 200-day MA since 2013… pic.twitter.com/dqCb9u2FRB
— Grant Hawkridge (@granthawkridge) March 30, 2021
Weekly Heat Map…Notice Large Cap lagging ( still )
Healthcare, Staples and others “painting” a little green… pic.twitter.com/CM2r0zGvx5
— James Boyd (@JBoyd_TDA) March 30, 2021
April is the second best month of the year for the S&P 500 (only November is better).
Here's what the average November does.
Majority of the gains happen the first 18 days, then it coasts in like Usain Bolt. pic.twitter.com/Zz2Eo7TifF
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 30, 2021
$XLC vs $SPY traded down to the 2020 consolidation zone but the RSI didn't break below 40. pic.twitter.com/rlqMgySIMc
— Dan Russo, CMT (@DanRusso_CMT) March 30, 2021
Tech vs Industrials$XLK $XLI pic.twitter.com/jlcSLRf4oh
— David Zarling, CMT (@AdaptivCharts) March 30, 2021
#Gold back below USD 1,700 as bond #yields spike! pic.twitter.com/rnUIvtJc8U
— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 30, 2021
With another 1.5% decline today, gold is on pace for just its 10th quarterly decline of 10%+ since 1975. https://t.co/A6PulyB8B1 pic.twitter.com/q09CQPvm6p
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) March 30, 2021
US Dollar/Japanese Yen at important multi-year resistance level. Momentum breaking out$USDJPY pic.twitter.com/SLl5vYiYMT
— Bhagyashree Urdhwareshe, CMT (@sunsofttech) March 30, 2021
US Dollar / Japanese Yen breaking out.$USDJPY pic.twitter.com/MFw4xim0Ho
— R. Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) March 30, 2021
The weight of the evidence suggests higher rates are on the horizon… $HYG / $IEF $GLD $TNX h/t @IanCulley pic.twitter.com/HZsLlDcLLr
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) March 30, 2021
10 year treasury yields:
Jan 1, 2020: 1.9% – Why tech stocks should all be worth $1 trillion
Mar 30, 2021: 1.7% – Why tech stocks should now be trading at Ben Graham cigar butt levels
Perception & narratives are so much more important than data in the markets pic.twitter.com/A0VnlYtsXc
— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) March 30, 2021
Eu tinha certeza que já tinha visto isso em algum lugar ??? pic.twitter.com/cEBgO65gfH
— Raphael Figueredo | RAFI (@RaphaFigueredo) March 30, 2021