Wednesday, March 29th, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq 100 +1.87% | S&P 500 +1.42% | Russell 2000 +1.08% | Dow +1.00%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed higher. Real Estate led, gaining +2.38%. Health Care lagged, but still rose +0.28%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures slipped -0.31% to $72.97 per barrel. Gold futures fell -0.33% to $1,967 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index gained +0.21% to $102.64.
Crypto: Bitcoin gained +4.15% $28,404. Ethereum rose +1.27% to $1,796.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield was flat at 3.568%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$QQQ Coffee anyone? ☕️ pic.twitter.com/wdyMAmtgZI
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) March 29, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by TrendSpider (@TrendSpider). It’s a 65-min candlestick chart of the Nasdaq 100 ETF ($QQQ) over the past two months. Today, the media declared that the Nasdaq is in a new bull market, as it’s up more than 20% from its December lows. However it seems silly to call this a new bull market, considering its still down more than 22% from its all-time highs. Labels aside, the Nasdaq is shaping up for a new leg higher. It closed at a seven month high today, as it attempts to emerge from a bullish cup & handle pattern. It failed its initial attempt to close above the February highs last Wednesday, but it spent the past week forming the handle of this pattern. Some of the nastiest moves in recent months have begun as failed breakouts, so it’s crucial that $QQQ holds above the February highs ($312) in the near term. If it can hold above $312, the next major upside objective will be the August highs, which are around $333.
Quote of the Day
“The height of the pinnacle is determined by the breadth of the base.”
– Ralph Waldo Emerson
So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance – Trading Adventures
Andy Moss highlights some key takeaways from recent price action.
Last Day of Q1: Small-Caps Best, NASDAQ Second Best – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch examines how the major indices have historically performed on the last day of Q1.
Gold: The Shiny Rock is Shining – Carson Group
Sonu Varghese takes a look at the relationship between Gold and Real Interest Rates.
Equally-Weighted S&P 500 Falls Apart Relative – All Star Charts
JC Parets shares his thoughts on the Equal Weight S&P 500’s underperformance.
Today, 9⃣2⃣ % of $SPY components closed 🟩 pic.twitter.com/HZvNlAWfsH
— Brandon Van Zee (@BrandonVanZee) March 29, 2023
$SPX – Continuing to improve in most fronts.
Price follow through.
A/D Line improved.
Yes – $4,200 is the big bully that still needs to be defeated. pic.twitter.com/vl6eGKiUMi
— Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts) March 29, 2023
$QQQ Is just barely breaking out from the previous swing high and the VWAP from the highs.
Time for a whipsaw? pic.twitter.com/SrPUtORgA7
— Tyler Lovingood (@Tyler_Lovingood) March 29, 2023
So a more laid back look at the level of this stalemate:
-S&P 1500 price w 200 dma (ma has flattened, price above).
-S&P 1500 A/D line, essentially middle of range.
-S&P 500% of stocks above the 200 DMA a clean 50/50. $SPX $ES_F pic.twitter.com/gEziEp40xu
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) March 29, 2023
The stock market looks frozen with fear🥶
But is it really?
The S&P 500 was up just +.03% on the month through yesterday
…yet the difference in the best and worst-performing sectors' performances has been a hefty 18 percentage points, the most in six months pic.twitter.com/OiCddQS1Ay
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) March 29, 2023
Reversals in returns have been a big theme so far in 2023–what worked last year (energy/commodities) is down YTD, while last year's injuries (crypto & FANG+) have been this year's stars. Question now is how much more juice is left to squeeze… pic.twitter.com/vVMhuv2wdH
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) March 29, 2023
Up nearly 5% in Q1 for the S&P 500.
Last quarter was up 7.1%.
Next quarter is quite strong as well, historically.
We've noted many times that the calendar has been (and still is) a tailwind for stocks. pic.twitter.com/Z7n17KpYsV
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 29, 2023
50% of all bear markets (Since 1950) bottomed in Oct 🚨
– Since 1950, we have had 12 bear markets
– (not including this one)
– In 6/12 (50%) markets bottomed in October
– So is it rly far-fetched to think markets bottomed 10/12/22?
– History would suggest it makes sense.
— Matt Cerminaro (@mattcerminaro) March 29, 2023
Rates just won't die. 2-year back above 4%, 10s keep bouncing at 3.3% pic.twitter.com/3gG2Xcq310
— Scott Brown, CMT (@scottcharts) March 29, 2023
A break below the 2016 and 2020 highs in the US Dollar Index $DXY would be a major feather in the hat for #Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrencies. pic.twitter.com/nT4Lk2DQrK
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) March 29, 2023
BTFD is back and stronger then ever, buy every red day and profit. pic.twitter.com/zIr6OIUkMC
— Tom (@TradingThomas3) March 29, 2023