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Today’s Summary
Monday, March 29th, 2021
Indices: US Stocks kicked off the week on a mixed note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only major index to close higher, rising 98 points or 0.30%. The S&P 500 was flat (0.09%), while the Nasdaq fell 0.60%. The Russell 2000 underperformed significantly, dropping 2.83%.
Sectors: 5 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Utilities led, gaining 1.07%. Energy lagged, falling 1.19%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures moved higher by 0.97% to $61.56 per barrel. Gold futures dropped 1.16% to $1,712 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose 0.19%.
Interest Rates: The 10-year US Treasury yield moved higher to 1.715%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
When we get these types of extended moves away from the 200-day MA in the 10-Year Treasury Yield $TNX, we historical get a period of sideways action following pic.twitter.com/MNJyI9CmgM
— Grant Hawkridge (@granthawkridge) March 29, 2021
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Grant Hawkridge (@granthawkridge). It’s a chart of the US 10-year Treasury yield ETF ($TNX) over the past 12 years. The 10-year yield is extremely stretched above its 200-day moving average right now. Grant point’s out that similar instances over the past decade were followed by months of sideways price action. After a sharp move higher in recent months, it would make a lot of sense to see some pause and digestion around this former support level.
Quote of the Day
“The world is a tragedy to those who feel, but a comedy to those who think.”
– Horace Walpole
Top Links
How Recessions Change the Winners in the Stock Market – A Wealth of Common Sense
Ben Carlson explains that it’s normal to see a change in leadership after a bear market.
Quality Growth – Murphy Charts
Shane Murphy makes the bull case for the quality growth stocks.
Old School – The Weekly Trend
In this podcast, David Zarling and Ian McMillan weigh-in on the rising US Dollar, Growth vs. Value, Chinese Stocks, and more.
A Conversation with Cathie Wood from ARK Invest – Renaissance Macro Research
Here’s a good conversation between Jeff deGraff and Cathie Wood in which they discuss her career and investment process.
Anything Can Happen – All Star Charts
JC Parets emphasizes the importance of risk management.
Top Tweets
Last week's all-time high close in $SPX saw 58% of members close in the top 10% of their weekly range – highest measure in 3 years: pic.twitter.com/hEbsfyEYtz
— Optuma (@Optuma) March 29, 2021
There are "Good" overbought and "Bad" overbought conditions. This one falls into the former, not the latter. pic.twitter.com/Qf35FfrOxm
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) March 29, 2021
The S&P 500 has 15 new all-time highs already in '21.
But what really matters is knowing that new highs happen in clusters that can last a decade or more.
We've been sharing this chart for a few years now and continue to expect history to rhyme. pic.twitter.com/ft6M1IOhjT
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 29, 2021
Russell 2,000 chart after today's drop: $IWM pic.twitter.com/S6FBR7V5T8
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) March 29, 2021
Will the uptrend resume? There's a growing case to be made… https://t.co/MUX4FfUsEW pic.twitter.com/6guN6PNdn2
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) March 29, 2021
One of these is not like the others…$VGK, $VPL, $EEM, $ILF pic.twitter.com/LTi8ZI8AZK
— Dan Russo, CMT (@DanRusso_CMT) March 29, 2021
One of the key charts to watch the coming weeks. The US Dollar Index #DXY, which could derail the #reflation and #reopening trades. pic.twitter.com/lbss0TgKjK
— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 29, 2021
Dollar holding the 200dEMA ? $DXY pic.twitter.com/zj7QCkroBa
— Drew Wells, CMT, CIMA® (@DrewTheCharts) March 29, 2021
$DXY $dollarindex — Corrected .. 39-month trough cycle. pic.twitter.com/Y0bzSqw6tv
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) March 29, 2021
$TSLA is down big the last 9 weeks, but it is important to put this decline into perspective and have realistic expectations. The decline looks like a normal retracement, stock became oversold and I am watching for a StochRSI pop. Charts and details here: https://t.co/SMaND2dMe4 pic.twitter.com/4i7bhn3agP
— Arthur Hill, CMT (@ArthurHill) March 29, 2021
ViacomCBS ($VIAC) and Discovery ($DISCA) have yet to recover from the rapid unwind of positions from hedge fund Archegos late last week. That's remarkable in a market that is supposedly 'buy the dip' oriented with SPACs barely raising eyebrows pic.twitter.com/JajKsCXryC
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) March 29, 2021