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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, March 2nd, 2021
Indices: US Stocks closed lower in today’s session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 144 points or 0.46%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved lower by 0.81% and 1.69%, respectively. The Russell 2000 underperformed, dropping 1.93%.
Sectors: Materials was the only sector to close higher, rising 0.56%. Tech lagged, falling 1.59%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures moved lower by 1.47% to $59.75 per barrel. Gold futures rose 0.62% to $1,734 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index slipped 0.25%.
Interest Rates: The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 1.393%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$GDX Gold Miners 1D
Past resistance becomes future support? We'll see… pic.twitter.com/uijs7P0swV
— Shane C. Murphy (@murphycharts) March 2, 2021
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Shane Murphy (@murphycharts). It’s a chart of the Gold Miners ETF, $GDX, over the past eight years. Shane points out that $GDX is retesting the breakout level around $31-$32. This level acted as resistance several times over the years until it finally broke out last April. As classic technical analysis states, former resistance tends to act as support when retested like this. Will buyers show up at this familiar level? We’ll likely find out soon, so stay tuned!
Quote of the Day
“Healthy scepticism is the basis of all accurate observation.”
– Arthur Conan Doyle
Top Links
Weak Tuesday After Big Gains on Monday – Bespoke
Bespoke points out that a weak Tuesday is typical after a strong Monday.
We’re Buying Gold Miners…Again – All Star Charts
The team at All Star Charts examines a potential rebound in Gold Mining stocks.
Semiconductor Stocks Looking To Trigger Bullish Breakout Signal – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble takes a look at a ratio chart of Semiconductors vs. the Nasdaq 100.
S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern Suggests Weakness Likely Ending Soon – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch explains what seasonality suggests for the S&P 500 in the weeks ahead.
Anatomy of a Bond Market Sell-off – LPL Financial Research
The team at LPL Financial Research weighs-in on the action we saw in the bond market last week.
Top Tweets
Out of 40 trading days this year, today was the fifth-worst for the S&P 500. That's more a reflection of the low volatility earlier this year.
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) March 2, 2021
Remember, most large gains happen beneath the 200-day MA.
What happens when the S&P 500 gains more than 2.3% and closes above the 200-day MA (like yesterday)?
Extremely strong future results, with the sweet spot 6 months out. Higher the past 15 times and up nearly 12% on avg. pic.twitter.com/Qw6jYMv0ck
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 2, 2021
Some more fuel for bulls here… Yesterday $SPY surged more than 2%. When this occurs above the 100 Day Moving average, it tends to signal more upside ahead pic.twitter.com/BP08ZnWr9q
— Rolando Santos (@TKPTrader) March 2, 2021
Monday was a 13:1 up day (advancing volume/declining volume), the first 10:1 day since Sept 28 and the best since April 8. @NDR_Research 1/2 pic.twitter.com/zAYfUWfmoG
— Ed Clissold (@edclissold) March 2, 2021
How much further can Small Caps run?
So far, they're holding up quite well above this 1.618 extension of the 2020 drawdown. The next target area would be ~$291 on $IWM. pic.twitter.com/qz28lsiBJW
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) March 2, 2021
Too much selling at the same time?
A near record % of NASDAQ stocks triggered a MACD sell signal.
Historically, this led to more gains for stocks over the next 6 months (NASDAQ up 90% of the time by an average of +15.6%) pic.twitter.com/oKDgWqc92L
— Troy Bombardia (@bullmarketsco) March 2, 2021
? $GDX ?
– Gold miners trading to 6month lows.
– Coinciding with prior highs that has acted as support. pic.twitter.com/vciZk94Ciy— Pivot Analytics ?? (@pivotanalytics) March 2, 2021
$GDX Weekly. Logical place for a bounce. pic.twitter.com/pgFmmqId84
— Brian G (@alphacharts) March 2, 2021
The phrase “commodity supercycle” has become quite popular recently.
The chart below shows the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is up 16.05% through Feb 28. With data going back to 1973, this marks the second-best start to a year on record. Only 2003 got off to a faster start. pic.twitter.com/ubvttuAIVx
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) March 2, 2021
Commodities coming off extreme overbought condition (RSI > 80) which usually suggests short-term pullback before resuming LT uptrend. Worth noting $DBC could pullback to 15.40 and still be considered in an uptrend. pic.twitter.com/EYgr3XFKsl
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) March 2, 2021
Don't know if you noticed, but the S&P 500 closed veeeeery close to its lowest tick of the day today (0.04% away if you want to be precise).
Since 1990, when the S&P 500 finished the day that close to the low, it was down the day after that about 96% of the time.
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) March 2, 2021